Monday, June 19, 2006

World Cup: 2nd week

Reactions from a long weekend of exciting soccer.
It is finally getting really exciting, as teams are making their push for the 2nd round.  Winning the first game is important, as you don’t want to get into must-win situations too quickly.  However, teams usually get over their first game jitters and start playing ball like they mean it, and we’ve seem some interesting trends.

The Argentines are playing like they’re all channeling Maradona (who has been in the stands, by the way, as ESPN can’t stop panning over to see what he’s doing).  I haven’t seen better creativity or energy out of any team in the Cup so far.  After their thrashing of Serbia on Friday, they are in the 2nd round.  So is Holland, after probably one of the best games at the cup so far.  The Ivory coast played well and looked dangerous the entire game, but were unlucky to win over an equally skilled and determined Dutch team.  So many balls went just wide or hit the bar in this game that I was in permanent Ooooh and Aaaah mode.

Wednesday’s Argentina v. Holland game should be the Must-See game of the entire group round (sorry, team USA, but if I had to pick…).  I think it would be a mistake for either of these teams to give up momentum just because they have a guaranteed spot in the 2nd round.

Oh, by the way.  I had an interesting couple of comments about my group of death post last week.  Many people argued that Group C was the group of death this year and I got a pretty nasty comment when I declared that it was group E (foolish American).  Well, the two teams expected to come out of group C did, after two games.  Group E is still entirely up for grabs.  Any more arguments?

Portugal has finally shown some life with 6 points and a berth in round 2.  Mexico looks like a train wreck waiting to happen, and if Portugal takes this game seriously on Wednesday they could be looking at their first early exit from the World Cup in a long time.  It’s looking OK for them, but there’s a chance.

OK, I’m not going to comment on Saturday’s games too much, as in America here they’ve already been taken apart by everyone. 

The Czechs seem to have disappeared in game two, just in time for the Americans to wake up and take it to the Italians.  Yes, I’m surprised on both accounts.  I expected the Czechs to do better, and the Italians really should have taken the USA to the cleaners.  However, I’m wondering if after the first game both European teams relaxed a bit.

The Americans definitely played better in game two, and did very well to hold Italy to a draw.  But they have yet to score a goal in the tournament, and they need to solve that before playing a Ghana team who embarrassed a team that just finished thrashing the USA 5 days earlier.

Brazil.  What can you say.  They’re in round 2 and your not.  They haven’t looked like the magical samba band that they are known for, but they usually take a few games to really get going. 

Tough for the Australians, though.  They played a great game, and still have a great shot at getting into round 2.  I’m excited to see them there, as they look really good.  Harry Kewell is playing inspired ball right now.

France.  Ugh.  Check please, Monsieur.  At least they finally broke that 8 year scoring drought at a World Cup.  Friday is going to be a long day for the French.  Zidane got another yellow card and won’t be playing on Friday.  He’s looked pretty slow lately.  Will his absence be a bad thing?

Spain.  For a while in today’s game I thought that Tunisia had their number.  Spain tends to fall apart and choke at some point in every big tournament, despite their talent.  Would it be this early in the Cup? 

The answer was no.  They’re still able to create, and scored 3 quick goals toward the end of the game.  They still look really good, and controlled the ball well in the game, but we’re still holding our breath.

In the next round so far: Germany, Ecuador, England, Argentina, Holland, Portugal, Brazil, Spain.
Looks like a pretty familiar group.

Re-post

I had a post on Thursday bounce back at me.  So it should be right behind this one.  Catching up from being on the road and watching as much soccer as an American can.

World Cup: Some are moving on

The 2nd games of the group round have barely begun, and already we have some teams who have booked their slots in the 2nd round.  Yesterday Germany won their 2nd game, and guaranteed a spot, and today Ecuador and England won their 2nd games.  I thought Germany looked pretty sketchy in their match against Poland, but a win is a win.

Today Ecuador convincingly beat Costa Rica, controlling the ball all over the place and scoring 3 times.  If they tie Germany in the next match they could conceivably end up topping the group and playing the runner up from group B. 

England 2, Trinidad & Tobago 0
The score is misleading, as England didn't get their first goal until the 82nd minute.  Trinidad defended well and even got through the English defense a couple of times.  However, for 65 minutes of that game (as well as the first game) England played like smeg.  They couldn't find the penalty box of the opposition to save their tea.  It was close your eyes embarrassing. 

Sometime in the 65th minute, after some intelligent subs by Sven, the English woke up.  Finally: they were passing and keeping the ball.  Finally:  they seemed to find that inner passion they needed to win the game.  Finally:  they found a way to get the ball into the box and look threatening.

The reward came late with a perfect cross from Beckham to the tall and lanky Crouch (whose sole contribution up to that point was collecting penalties for climbing over defenders).  Gerrard's goal after that was beautiful, but academic in the 91st minute.

Sweden 1, Paraguay 0
Sweden has a chance to redeem themselves in the game vs. England next week.  They didn't look good in their first game, and from the reports they didn't sound very good in this game, but came away with the win anyway.  Paraguay is going home now.  They declared that they weren't afraid of England and Sweden before coming into this tournament, and perhaps they shouldn't have been.  But lack of fear doesn't help.  You also need to be able to score.

I'm on the road tomorrow.  Probably won't post again until Saturday.  Catch the action tomorrow, there should be some good games.  Up until this point, many of these teams have just been warming up.

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

End of week one

Continuing from yesterday, I stopped off at the Sunday games and Group D of World Cup action. 
Monday was the big day for the USA.  And they lit it off in spectacular style, showing just how you lose to European powerhouses.  You lose big.

To be fair, I’ve seen the US play tons better than they did.  And to be further fair, the Czechs played as good as I’ve seen anyone play in the tourney.  The passing was precise and the play was fanatic.  You can get reactions from anywhere and everywhere on this game, and I will probably agree with most of them, except the ones that insist that the US really is that bad.  There is a certain amount of bias against America on this point, however it must be said that the Americans looked unfocused and sloppy.  They acted like they didn’t want to be there at that moment, and they definitely are not ready to take on the mantle of World Cup champions any time soon.  It was obvious from the lack of passion and the ability to keep up the pace of the European players.

In case anyone is keeping score here, I have never claimed that the US was going to beat the Italians or Czechs out of this group.  It was unfortunate that they got put here, but since they are, while I think that they could surprise us and beat the Italians, I don’t think they will.  And, consequently, they won’t get to the next round.  I’m just hoping they play a bit better and leave Germany with something to be proud of.

Anyway, on to the other games.

Australia 3, Japan 1   
Oh, how I wish that I had caught this game.  The Aussies coming back from a 1-nil deficit to win 3-1?  How crazy was that?  They definitely made a statement, and it will be fun to see them play Brazil and the Croatians.  Can they get out of the group?  It depends on their game with Croatia.

Italy 2, Ghana 0
Who didn’t predict this?  Unfortunately, I was driving in no man’s land on the way to the northern California coast on business when this was going on, so I didn’t see the game and can’t comment on the play.  I’ll see them when they play America.

Brazil 1, Croatia 0
Really?  Just one goal?  Didn’t see this one either.  Can’t wait to see the Brazilians play.

South Korea 2, Togo 1
You have to admit that the Togo players put up a heck of a fight and provided some entertainment along the way.  These matches between lower quality teams get under-billed.  I enjoyed the scrappiness of both teams, and neither one was beyond the other in skill.  Togo could have pulled this one out.  However, it was obvious that the Koreans had the edge in skill and inventiveness, and so I’m not surprised that they eventually pulled it out.  That’s it for the Koreans, though.  As bad as France and Switzerland played in their match, I think they both won’t have trouble with these two.

France 0, Swiss 0
Ugh.  I was looking forward to this one over the previous game, as I predicted this great battle between very evenly matched opponents.  France looking to get back finally at a Swiss team that held them to two ties in the qualifying rounds.  How utterly bored I was while actually watching this.  How disappointed I am at seeing a team with such immense talent as the French waste it as they did.  Henry seemed like he was on Valium.  Zidane is beginning to play like he’s at the end of his career.  And he is.  They are missing the presence of Sissi as much as England was missing Roony last week.  Problem is they won’t be getting Sissi back.

Spain 4, Ukraine 0
Another game I was looking forward to.  It was still fun to watch, but only because the Spanish look really good this year.  I wanted to see some of Shevchenko’s blistering runs to the goal, but had to settle for the wonderful ball control, passing and finishing of the Spanish.  They might even make a believer out of me. 

As for the Ukrainians, Jamie Trecker of Fox says it best.

      Spain is firing on all cylinders for the first time in ages. And Ukraine, apparently, is unfamiliar with the alarm clock. (But no matter: All America today thanks them for taking over last place. Way to step up, Operation Freedom ally Ukraine!)

Tunisia 2, Saudi Arabia 2
Didn’t get to see this one.  Thought it wouldn’t be worth my time, but heard from people that it was quite the game.  Not great play, but definitely suspense and passion.  Tunisia is the only African team to not lose a game so far.  The 2nd round should finally see some African team wins, but it’s not going to be Tunisia, as Spain looks unbeatable, and the Ukraine won’t be the pushover that Spain made them seem like.

Germany 1, Poland 0
This was and interesting game.  I sat with some buddies over lunch and tried to get into this game.  There was definitely lots of emotion and hard tackling, for these are storied foes on the pitch.  What helped was that Poland decided to bring their B game (instead of the D- game last week) and German didn’t look as focused or disciplined as when they carved up the Costa Rica defense.  This game was kind of scrappy itself.  I honestly thought that the Polish were going to pull out a draw and take away some sort of foolish pride before they got sent home.  Oliver Neuvell, a hero from the last Cup, came in late in the match and scored the winner in injury time, after the 90th minute.  Oh, heartbreak!  I was surprised it didn’t happen sooner, as the Polish lost a man due to red card in the 75th minute.  Germany tried and tried, but just couldn’t put the ball in the back of the net.  Credit the Polish defense, but I see lots of problems with the German side that need to be addressed before the next round, which they have now a guaranteed spot in.

Just so as you know, despite my American fanship, I’m enjoying this cup to the hilt.  Hope you all are to some extent too.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006

World Cup - Week One

Sorry I haven't been posting.  I've been out of town, and happen to still be out of town.  So the time and access to internet has been compromised.

Well, where to begin.  First I would like to address my post last week, that got some pretty good criticism, concerning so called "groups of death."  Seems that me and my critics might both be proven wrong.  He seemed to think that Group E, containing the lowly USA, couldn't possibly be a group of death, as the Czechs and Italians would handily beat the US and Ghana, whereas the Serbs and the Ivory Coast were more than a match for "just waiting to be upset" Argentina and Holland.  Ok, here's my prediction for the two groups.  I think that after this week the best that will be said for the two groups is that  neither was a "group of death."   The USA looked HORRIBLE in their game vs. the Czechs, and their opponents looked every bit of the 2nd in the world ranking they have.  Ghana too looked overwhelmed by an experienced and determined Italian squad.

However, I wasn't really impressed with the Ivory Coast.  I watched that game, and thought that the Argentinean team was playing very well, while their opponents had some very obvious flaws.

I think of all these teams you could say that they are dangerous.  The USA is still dangerous, and they have the talent to put it together.  But will they?

OK, down to business.
Saturday:  England 1 Paraguay 0
This was a cover-face-game for the English.  Yes, they won.  However they looked very unfocused and couldn't seem to get the ball under control in the box.  Getting it to the box wasn't all that hard, but they look like they are just waiting for Roony to come and bail them out.  Their one goal comes from a Beckham kick from a set piece.  You can't count on those in every game.  Paraguay was just along for the ride.  Sweden can definitely take them if they improve from their last game.  Which brings me to:

Sweden 0 Trinidad-&-Tobago 0
This was a fun game to watch, but not because the talented Swedes played a pleasing version of the beautiful game.  It was fun because supreme underdogs T&T overcame playing with 10 men for an entire half to hold the Swedes scoreless.  Kudos for them, but this has just as much to do with Sweden playing under their ability.  And they are in danger of not getting out of this group unless they do well in their next two matches.

Argentina 2 Ivory Coast 1
I've said a bit about this one above.  I think that Argentina looks about as good as anyone in this tournament.  They played a group of larger and faster opponents well, defended well, and were very creative and fun to watch when attacking.  If they continue like that this group will come easy for them.  Not at all like the last world cup (when they were in a true group of death).  The Ivory Coast is going to be a dangerous team, but only because they are fast and strong.  They looked lost when they had the ball, and their main play was to get the ball to their fast strikers, notably Drogba, and hope they could do something with it.  Every time they got the ball into the box, the man with the ball tried to dribble around, like he was trying to make his own shot.  Lots of people think they can go far in this tournament, but I think that their lack of imagination is going to catch up to them before the end of the group round.

Holland 1 Serbia 0
I didn't get to watch this game, but I'm not surprised at the result.  Serbia cruised through the qualifying, but they haven't had the experience on the main stage.  Sure they won their group, but they didn't beat Spain, and they had to beat teams like Bosnia, Belgium and San Marino.  Holland seems to have handled them without a problem, now on to the Ivory Coast, and we'll see what the African boys are really made of.

Mexico 3 Iran 1
Who didn't see this coming.  Thank goodness the Tricolores were up to this task, because nobody wanted to see the Iranian President trying to visit Germany to watch the games.

But it also goes once again to show that Mexico is getting a gift here that the USA should have been given.

Portugal 1 Angola 0
The constant underachievers slipped by probably the worst team at the tournament.  They aren't looking good trying to walk the path of redemption.  But they will escape this group, anyway.


Friday, June 09, 2006

World Cup, Day One action

Deutschland uber alles!  Wow, what a great way to start this years World Cup! 
We went over to Kells Irish pub at 9Am, the start of the Germany v. Costa Rica game and the first game of the tournament.  I liked watching it there.  It wasn’t really all that crowded (although all tables were taken), the service was good, and the mood was fan frenzy.  I had my wife and daughter with me, and I was pleased to note that Kells is smoke free (smoking room in the basement).  They kind of redeemed themselves from two years ago when they showed the Euro Cup, and charged $20 at the door.  This time it was free.

To their defense, the media company with the rights to Euro Cup charged thousands for the rights to show the game, and the World Cup is on ESPN for free.

The Germany game was very high scoring, as the Germans won 4-2.  Someone said that it was one of the highest opening game scores in World Cup history.  The game started out with Germany controlling the ball in the Costa Rica end of the field.  In fact, for most of the game they kept it there.  Germany plays a very aggressive and offensive style of ball.  They were constantly trying to quickly get the ball up field, to the sides and then boost it into the middle.  German team is known for their dead ball and heading ability, so I wasn’t surprised by this.

However, none of the goals came on dead ball situations.  There were also no goals scored by headers (although Klose’s 2nd goal came as the result of a failed header). 

The first goal by Philipp Lahm was a thing of beauty.  I don’t think he could have hit that ball any better, as he was running across the box from the left side.  The ball hit the upper far post to elude the keeper.  Nice.

The second goal of the game (and later the fifth goal as well) was scored by Wachope of Costa Rica.  Both his goals were very similar, and it seems that it’s the only play the Ticos (as they’re called) know how to run.  Kick the ball over the defense and hope that Wachope can work some magic.  Well, thanks to a totally porous German defense, he did work some magic.  Twice.

However, Wachope is getting past his prime, and I shudder to think of what a truly world class offense is going to do to this German defense if they don’t figure out how to stop those streaking strikers.

Klose’s two goals were both mayhem in front of the goal events.  Both included fine footwork on the part of midfielders to thread the ball into Klose through traffic.  Klose is probably the best finisher they have.

The last goal, scored by Torsten Frings, was a rocket of a volley from 30 meters out.  That ball had a sonar wake behind it, and there was nothing the goalie could do. 

I think that the Germans are going to have to keep scoring or solve that defense issue if they want to progress far.  But due to the report of the other game between Poland and Ecuador, which Ecuador won 2-0, I don’t think Germany is going to have any trouble emerging from Group A.

Thursday, June 08, 2006

And they enter the starting gate...

Well, I’ve taken a small break to take more effort at work and at home in preparation for watching the World Cup this month.  So I’ll still be arguing, at least in my head, whether or not my commenter from a couple of posts ago is right in saying that it’s Group C that’s the group of death, and not group E.  Whatever, in either case I don’t know if there is really a true group of death this year.  Not like in 2002.

Anyway, I don’t get cable or satellite TV at my house, which under normal circumstances is preferred with me and my wife.  However, many of the games are on ESPN and ESPN2, and so I’m on the lookout for places to watch.  Downtown here I usually watch games over at Champions Pub in the Marriott.  European evening games play at 11:30AM here on the West Coast, which is about lunch time for me.  However, upon calling them, I found that they are not going to open before their regular opening time of 11:00. 

Kells is probably the ideal place.  What better venue than an Irish pub.  They are opening early, and allow youngsters, so my wife can join me even when she can’t get a sitter.

The Cheerful Tortoise is a college pub and eatery by the university, which is pretty close to where I work.  They also plan to open early for the 6AM games.  Haven’t really hung out there, though, so I don’t know what the atmosphere is like.

The Horse Brass pub is, shockingly, not going to show all the games, and they only plan on opening early on some days.  They have grown a reputation for showing Premier league games, so this move is disappointing, to say the least.

The A&L tavern is probably the other place I’ll consider going to.  I’ve watched soccer there before, and it’s a great place to go.  It’s been pretty smoky in the past, so I’ll end up there if I’ve got nothing else.

The games start tomorrow, so expect to hear from me, commenting on what I see.  I’m no expert on soccer, but I’ll call it like I see it anyway. 

I’m the kind of guy who likes to analyze games before hand, but I might not want to take all that time this year.  You might hear from me who I’m going to be cheering for, though.  If anyone.

Tomorrow’s game, Germany v. Costa Rica, I don’t really have a favorite there.  However, I tend to have that analytical personality that causes me to want the team who’s supposed to win on paper to do well.  So I’ll probably be pleased if Germany does well.

I’ll be routing for Poland in that group, though, considering my minor Polish lineage.

Soccer is one of those things in life that brings otherwise disparate peoples together in brotherhood.  Nowhere is this more unexpected than in the conflicted regions of the middle east. 

Check out this article in the BBC about Israel and Palestine.

      It is about the only issue Israelis and Palestinians can agree upon. The TV subscription rates to watch the football World Cup are too high.

      Furious Israeli football fans are staging a consumer rebellion that has prompted a parliamentary probe and already led to a reduction in prices.

      Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza are fervently trying to circumvent charges of up to $600 (£325) and watch matches on pirate TV channels which are pledging to broadcast the games free of charge.

      …
      Making light of the sporting unity, the Israeli daily newspaper Haaretz published a cartoon showing Israelis clambering over the West Bank security barrier to join Palestinian farmers to watch the tournament for free.

I’m wondering what effect this will have on tension in other parts of the world.  In Europe things basically shut down for the month.  Will the world be at relative peace while the Cup is being played?  Will Iran, who are participating, stay quite for a month?  Or will they use the distraction to make some bold move?  Will the disinterested Americans irritate the Iranians by continuing to press the issues, while all the Iranians want to do is watch Iran v. Portugal?

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

Somalia Taliban

Just in case no one was looking… You know this soccer business.
You all probably remember the country of Somalia.  Warlords.  American intervention.  Disaster, embarrassment. Black Hawk Down.  Stuff like that.  Well, someone seems to have cleaned up that situation.  Only…

      Islamists committed to implementing shari'a law in Somalia claim to have defeated warlords in Mogadishu after months of fighting in a country wracked by anarchy since 1991.

Oops.  Might have been better if, in full Bush style, we had not chickened out and left so quickly.  Or maybe it wouldn’t have.  Hard to say with warlords.  Funny thing was that they finally found common cause and banded together, but only because the Islamists were getting as powerful as they were.

Too late, though.

World Cup press story

Anyone wondering how much mania there is in the rest of the world there is for the game of Futball, check this out.

      This morning, eagle-eyed readers of the British papers saw the "shot all England had been waiting for," according to one tab: Wayne Rooney doing a bicycle kick. What you didn't see was the same picture in every paper, and therein lies a story.
      Behind the scenes papers bidded on the shot, which was captured by a freelancer and immediately put up for auction. The Daily Telegraph paid some £10,000 for it according to a high-placed source; the Sun got secondary rights for £5,000. The Guardian, which did not have it, balked at paying for a news photo, though the practice is common in the U.K. with celebrity snaps.
      The goods were also handled in a quite high-tech way: The freelancer reportedly made copies onto USB mass storage devices — those "penclips" that are becoming ubiquitous — and handed them over in exchange for hard, cold cash. I am told, quite relaibly, that one of the devices would not be relinquished until the purchasing editor went out and physically drained his bank account — apparently, a check was not good enough.

Photographers can get thousands for one snapshot.

I might even route for them

But not if they're playing the USA.
Ever since 1994, when the World Cup was played in America, I have had it in for Brazil.  It’s not like they aren’t a great team, or contain some really great players, I’ve just always thought they have held a sporting rabbit’s foot when it came to the big tournament.

They haven’t really performed well on other stages, like their own regional tournament, and have been getting beaten by Argentina on a regular basis.

Back in 1994, they tripped and crawled into the final, winning most of their games by 1-0, and two on penalty kicks.  During the final, they were totally outplayed by a fantastic Italian lineup, including the world’s best player Roberto Baggio, but the swarthy Europeans just couldn’t get the ball into the net.  But Brazil couldn’t either and it remains the only cup final to be decided on penalties.  Brazil won because, of all people, Baggio missed his kick.

In 1998, they made it again to the final, only to get embarrassed by the French, who made them look like they didn’t deserve to be there.

In 2002, once again they played to the last game (and I suppose I should give them something for being able to make it to these final games one way or another), but their opponent was a lackluster German side, who didn’t have to beat world class opponents to get there.  In their defense, the Brazilians did have to beat some serious teams like Turkey and England, and beat the Germans convincingly.

But during that tournament we found that Brazilian players can be just as dirty and deceptive during play as anyone else (we won’t name names), and I secretly wished (well, not so secretly) that they would meet their end before the final.  Alas it wasn’t so.

This year I’ve been watching some of the players, and have to admit, as does this article, that the world’s favorite team looks really good.  They are playing well, and Ronaldino is really everything they say he is.  I can’t help but like this team and won’t be a bit disappointed if they win the whole thing.

Although for a change of pace it would be nice to see two different teams in the final.  England would be nice.  Or the Czechs.  Even Argentina if they make it out of round 1.  Spain anyone?

Monday, June 05, 2006

World Cup Group of Death talk

So I’ve been reading a bit about the teams and groups involved in this years World Cup, and it’s been interesting reading how they got there and what the various pundits think about who is going to do well and who isn’t.

But there’s only one thing rankling my so far in all the articles I’ve read.  In a couple of particular cases, writers have declared that poor Argentina has been thrust in yet another “Group of Death” from which they are going to have to fight their way out of.

So I’m thinking to myself, this really doesn’t sound right.  Argentina is paired with the Dutch, that’s for sure.  However the other countries are Serbia and the Ivory Coast.  Not exactly regular contenders.

I can’t find the sad sap ESPN article at the moment, but here’s a blurb from Fox Sports regarding the Ivory Coast’s chances: “That said, this is the "group of death," and any of these teams is capable of making it through to the second round. If one were to bet, I'd be tempted to pick CIV over Holland and Serbia/Montenegro.”

Seriously?  You’d pick the Ivory coast over the 3rd ranked team in the world?  What are you smoking?  Are you a sucker for the underdog normally?

Last time around Argentina was grouped with England, Sweden and Nigeria.  Now THAT’S a group of Death, with a capital D.  Argentina was picked to win the tournament in 2002, and England and Sweden made it out.  Nigeria’s no slouch, and it’s a terrible disappointment that they didn’t qualify this year.

I’ve been saying all along that the U.S. got caught in the group of death this year.  But just to show that my bias for my own country doesn’t have everything to do with that, check out the FIFA world rankings of all national teams.

Here are the groups this year.
Here are the rankings of all the teams as taken from FIFA website:

Group           Rankings        Average StDev
A               19,26,29,39     28.25           7.2
B               10,16,33,47     26.5            14.53
C               3,9,32,44       22              16.7
D               4,7,23,57       22.75           21

E               2,5,13,48       17              18.34
F               1,18,23,42      21              14.6
G               8,29,35,61      33.25           18.9
H               5,21,34,45      26.25           14.9

Note first of all that the USA’s group has the lowest average, indicating the most concentrated high ranked teams.  The standard deviation isn’t saying much, except that Germany’s group A is pretty close ranking-wise.  That’s an aberration because they have been performing poorly lately and are ranked lower than I have ever seen them at 19.  It’s also skewing group E, the USA’s group, because there is one team there, Ghana, with a terrible ranking. 

Note the other aspect of this list.  The top two teams come out of each group, so if we look at things as they are on paper, how close are the top two ranked teams vs. the bottom two teams in each group?

Group A is going to be exciting, but only because after Germany walks away with the top spot the other three are going to be fighting for the other spot in the round of 16.

Group B has a pretty significant gap, with England and Sweden taking it away on paper.
Group D is a little tighter.  However, the third ranked team there is Iran, who has only won a single game in the few times they have appeared in this tournament.  It was the USA in 1998.  I don’t think Mexico and Portugal are going to let this group get away from them.

Group F is like group A.  There is a significant gap in talent between Brazil and the other teams, but the battle for 2nd place is going to be lots of fun.  This is kind of a mini group of death, in that after Brazil, any one of those teams could make it.

Group G was some sort of heavenly gift to France.  Like groups A and F, they have a chance to really outclass their opposition.  However, in 2002 they got a similar pushover group and blew it big time, so this could be tighter than it looks on paper.  Switzerland is playing well above their ranking right now, so the two Euro teams should walk away with this group.

Group H is an anomaly.  The Ukraine is ranked below Tunisia at the FIFA site, but I can’t see them falling to the Saudis or Tunisia. 

Group C, if you’ll notice, looks a lot like groups B and D on paper.  Basically, instead of saying that anyone could come out of this group, which is basically true of any grouping, why don’t you say that, based on expectations, if Argentina and the Dutch don’t come out of this group there are going to be some very angry fans back home.  Argentina failing to come out of a group like this, after the last World Cup, will register a new record on the scale of shame in sporting history.  Calling this a group of death is a tool to give the White and Sky Blue an excuse to fail.  How pathetic.

The real group of death is a group that has more than 2 power teams in it.  This year that’s Group E  Up until the last 4 years, the United States has not been considered a power team, which is probably why they are where they are.  However they are one of the better teams in the world right now, and have the ability to play with just about anyone.  That Mexico, who they beat soundly in the qualifiers and finished ahead of, got to have a seeding and ended up in a group they should have no trouble getting out of is proof that there will probably always be a bit of bias in favor of tradition, history and culture over actual performance.

The USA has to deal with the Czechs, ranked 2nd, and the Italians, currently ranked 13th, but Italy has the players and will pick it up for the tournament.  Ghana is this years Nigeria. 

Sunday, June 04, 2006

Meet the new Peruvian President

Same as the old one. Or rather one that they had about 15 years ago. Alan Garcia, former President of the country in a time that saw the country collapse economically, is leading his runoff opponent Ollanta Humala by a significant margin.
This is a good thing. Humala is a Chavista follower, and would complete a trifecta with Chavez in Venezuela and Evo Morales in Bolivia. Chavez has been meddling in Peru politics as of late. He would knock the foundations of Peruvian economy right out from under it with a massive Socialist/Communist overhaul. Luckily it looks like the Peruvian people are seeing through this.

Bush reverses decision

Albeit on the Federal Marriage Amendment. (Hat tip Instapundit)
After all the fuss a couple of years ago on this issue, and lots of water under the bridge, Bush is now saying that he withdraws his support for the Amendment and that he had overreacted to situations on the ground, as well as some poor decisions by the courts and local officials. He now says that he should have trusted the people in those localities to bring their officials into line.
As against gay marriage as I have been, I respect the President on this. I think that his reasons for doing so are genuine and I have to admit that I was just as doom-sayer about the whole issue myself, torn as to whether I really wanted an Amendment to the constitution.
But the history of the Amendment, and Bush's actions during its lifetime suggest that he never really wanted it in the first place and was only over reacting. He doesn't like that gay marriage is popping up in some places, but recognizes that it's the people making it happen, not the judicial system. Not activists trying to work the system despite the people.
Here is part of his statement:
Two years ago, in this place, I announced my support for a constitutional amendment defining marriage as the union of one man and one woman. I strongly believe that'’s what marriage is and should be. If I were a state legislator or a governor, I'd oppose defining marriage in any other way. I supported the amendment because, at the time, I feared that uncontrollable judges and local officials were recklessly and lawlessly playing with the foundation of the American family. But I was wrong. Like others, I overreacted to what seemed like an emergency. I did not have sufficient faith in the historic processes of American government. The local officials who were defying state law in 2004 have been brought into line. DOMA is still good law. The states have begun amending their own constitutions to define marriage. I have appointed many federal judges in the mold of Justices Scalia and Thomas, including two to the Supreme Court, who will not tamper with marriage. And while I still fear that some state courts will attempt to redefine marriage in years to come, I am confident that the people in those states can deal with their own courts if that is what they choose to do. After all, that is what we have always trusted them to do.
Follow the link for more of the statement. This is a great piece of work. The retraction of support for the Amendment should score some points with libertarians (the left will hate him anyway) and his strong statement of faith in the American political system and Federalism/State's rights should comfort conservatives somewhat.
And this is a different side of Bush, the side that admits mistakes, that is going to get some real press. The left is fond of criticizing him for not admitting anything, but I think this will go a long way to silencing those critiques, even though there are many other examples of Bush admitting mistakes that get suppressed by the media.

Saturday, June 03, 2006

World Cup is Next week!

Man, sometimes big events just creep up on you. Or maybe that's just age, as I have known that the cup was coming, but time seems to fly recklessly.
So in the meantime, I'm reading about the teams, some of the players, checking the schedule and seeing what games I want to catch and when I have time to catch them. The tournament is in Germany this year, which means that we're going to have some early morning games. Like 6Am or 9AM. Which is a lot different from the last cup, which was in Korea and Japan, where the games were at 2AM and 5AM mostly.
Paul Mirengoff of Powerline is a big soccer fan and has been mulling all this over. It caught him by surprise too. So I'm not alone in this malady.
ESPN's soccer page has modified their motif so that it's all World Cup, all the time. They'll probably have this setup until mid-July.
Fox Sports has their page up too. Check these sites out if you need quick information to get you up to speed on what's going on.
My impression is that all the games are going to be on ESPN and ABC. That's certainly not without precedent. ESPN might have some scoreboards up that offer some play by play action. One would hope that they have some sort of streaming radio coverage so I can catch some of the action when I'm not within screaming distance of a cable TV.

Rules of War, and why things like Haditha happen

I haven't said anything about the Haditha incident being investigated by the military, and being judged prematurely by the press.
However, I stand with those who are waiting until the results of the investigation are in. It seems asinine to report to the American public that the marines in the incident acted "unprovoked" or are immediately declared murderers simply because Iraqi civilians were killed. Especially when all the facts are not in.
But even when the facts do come in, and the events are thrust into the light, whether the marines are declared guilty or not, we deserve to know why they have such a tough job and why not killing civilians is sometimes much more tricky, and in this case dangerous, than we here at home realize.
John Bambanek writes that there are a few Rules of War that armies have been following, or at least paying lip service to, for centuries that cause this sort of thing not to happen.
There are laws of war in place to prevent this kind of thing. They were in place hundreds of years before anyone conceived of the United Nations. At each step, the terrorists (and they are terrorists) have not only violated the laws of war, but used those laws of war against us to further attacks on our soldiers.
The first is that soldiers wear uniforms. Bambanek states that the primary purpose of this is to tell your enemy that you are a target, and thus not a civilian.
The second is that you don't attack civilian structures such as schools, churches, etc. The corollary to this is that you don't make one of these structures a military outpost or storage depot.
The third that Bambanek describes is that when you surrender the fight is over. If you use surrender as a ruse to kill more of you enemy when they come to get you (or help you get medical help) you put at risk those who legitimately want to surrender or need help.
Bambanek notes that this isn't an exhaustive list, but just three examples that insurgents/terrorists have broken over and over again.
The terrorists simply don't care about the civilian population. If the military mistakenly engages civilians or they hit civilian buildings after taking fire from them, the terrorists mark up another public relations victory because of the willingness of their allies on the American left to use these incidents for political gain. In this way, the terrorists are extremely intelligent… and incredibly evil. So those who wish to sit in judgment over the Marines at Haditha (before the investigation is even completed, mind you) manage to put on the blinders and refuse to consider how the actions of the terrorists almost guarantee these events will happen. If these Marines did snap and break the laws of war, they will be tried and punished. It is a shame, however, that no one seems to stand up for the soldiers who have to put up with an enemy who consistently breaks those laws. It's a national disgrace that some in the U.S. will stand up for the actions of those terrorists as legitimate.
Well said. I might add that, for those of you who are unaware of the geographic significance of Haditha, that it is well within the Sunni triangle where most of the attacks have been over the last 3 years. There were news articles and reports that occurred right before this incident happened about how Haditha was a terrorist outpost almost as bad as Falujah was before the marines took that city. There were lots of bad guys there.

Update: Here's a video from Powerline. A two minute film from the military showing how they have set up a system of recourse for Iraqis claiming that the US military damaged their property or, compensation for an unjury or the life of a family member. Quite the opposite picture from the beatial occupying force we see in the papers today.

Tuesday, May 30, 2006

Is this America?

This article came up last week and I'm just getting to it now. The school board of Michigan decided, without much thought really, that the term "America" and "Americans" should not be used in schools, on school tests or said aloud by teachers.
The Department of Education asserts that "Americans" includes Mexicans, Canadians and others in the Western Hemisphere, so referring to U.S. residents as Americans is inappropriate. In the department's view, "America" happens to include South, Central and North America. Accordingly, when referring to the colonial period, the state bureaucracy requires teachers to refer to "the colonies of North America" or "North Americans." After the American Revolution, the nation is called the United States (not of America).
OK, I see what they are doing here. Someone got the bug in their keester that they needed to be "non-offensive" about how we are described to the outside world. I.E. we wouldn't want to go around offending anyone by saying that we're Americans and you're not, even though you live on the North American continent.
So I thought I would offer some thought from a geographer's point of view. First of all, trying to narrow the name of this country down to just the United States (even though it's common enough to do so) is not technically correct. You don't call the People's Republic of China just "the People's Republic." America is part of the name and has been from the beginning. In fact there are more countries in the world than you can count on your hands and feet with longer full names than just the Democratic Republic of the Congo, or the Federal Republic of Germany, or the People's Republic of Bangladesh. It's just that you don't see those titles every day like you do with the United States of America.
So for purely formal reasons it makes sense that people refer to this as "America" as it is the short form of the country's name.
Now from the point of arguing that because the continent's name is America, we can't specifically refer to ourselves as "Americans." There are areas in the world where a country's name takes on the name of the region, or the continent. The Congo is a region of central Africa, but one country that contains most of it gets the name. South Africa is the name of a country, as well as the southern region of the African Continent, which includes more than just that country.
Australia is a country and a continent.
Also, if they are trying to be politically correct about not offending anyone, I don't think that you'll go anywhere in this world where when people say "Americans" they aren't talking about us. Not the Mexicans (heck the Mexicans probably all think of us as Americanos, not United Statians, or whatever).
So linguistically and geographically I think it's a fallacy that we shouldn't call ourselves "Americans."

Update: I corrected a sentence above that sounded kind of funny. I made it seem like no one in the world refers to us as Americans, when I meant the opposite. I think I was just in a hurry to finish for some reason. Sorry.

Monday, May 29, 2006

Columbian's re-elect Urube

With all the bad news and all the corrupt and ugly governments in Latin America, it's always nice to hear about a success story. Something for the countries that were fooled into putting leftist dictators into power to notice, that yes it's better for you to put a president in there who believes in free markets and free people.
And, yes, the big stunner is that the country in question is Columbia.
The country just re-elected Alvaro Urube.
For his second term, Uribe, 53, promises to provide health care to all of Colombia'’s 41 million inhabitants, ensure every child receives education and make loans available for the poor to set up businesses. He also plans to cut the rate of taxation on personal and corporate income and reduce a tax on financial transactions.
Unemployment has dropped dramatically. The economy is soaring.
HeÂ’s destroying terrorism, installing free markets, and creating a new nation out of one of the world's worst hellholes on a scale unseen almost anywhere else in the world. The stock market has gone up 500% since he'’s taken office. The debt has been repaid early, the peso is soaring, the jobless rate is tumbling (unemployment is down one third since he took office!), investment both foreign and domestic has gone through the moon and confidence and optimism is returning. The economy grew at 5% last year. Crime has evaporated. The country reported exactly two kidnaps this year.
Now, temper that with the context that Columbia had nowhere to go but up when he took office.
But it's still something to celebrate and encourage in our foreign relations.

Protest Iran!

The excitement reaches a crescendo. There are pretty aggressive protests taking place in Iran, proving that the government's attitude about nuclear bombs, Israel and just about everything else just might not be what the citizens of that fine country believe. The reason that Iran is on the U.S.A.s list of evil countries is due to a small micro minority of radical Islamists, who just happen to be in power.
Gateway pundit has a couple of posts on the protests.
Reports from Iran claim that thousands of Azeris are leaving the northwest for the capital to protest against the regime.
The Revolutionary Guard was dispatched to Naqadeh to squelch the protests there that have continued for a week.
He notes that the Christian Science Monitor is wondering if this is the beginning of the end for the Mullah regime.
I'm wondering if, even if this isn't the end of the Mullahs, if all the stuff they are having to deal with, including a Kurdish military uprising in the northwest, will change their international dealings, at least for a while. At least long enough for the UN to finally issue some sort of sanctions? OK, I'm not holding my breath. I'm pulling for popular uprising toppling the government and then asking for our help in setting up a popular democracy.

Happy Memorial Day

In honor of all those who have risked their lives in service to the freedoms with which we enjoy every day of our lives. Thank you, to the men and women of our armed forces and an even deeper thank you for those killed so that we might stay free.
Additionally, see my post from Friday on the flag planting at Willamette National Cemetery.

Tryon Creek State Park

My continuing series on Oregon's open and wild places brings us to an urban area. Or rather a wild oasis in the Portland urban zone. Within the city limits, down Terwilliger Blvd toward Lake Oswego there is a reserve of about 550 acres, with nothing but trails, creeks and lots of Douglas-fir and Cedar trees. It's called Tryon Creek State Park, named for the major drainage that flows through it.


The one thing that I noticed right off the bat was how dense the canopy was. Very shady on a bright day. If you enter the park from the Terwilliger entrance and drive down to the parking lot, there is a nature center (really more like a visitor center) with lots of displays to learn from and stuff to buy to support the park.

Obie's Bridge
The trails are well maintained, and though some of them are used for horses, the horse trails are very similar to the hiking trails, and are not quite as beat up as some state parks with horse trails. Either this is because of better maintenance, or possible because this is more of an urban park, there aren't as many people keeping horses nearby. There are over 15 miles of trails in the park, and all of them are worth going down. The Lewis and Clark trail going toward the Law School was my favorite.

Tryon Creek at Obie's Bridge
The park is a part of what used to be owned by Socrates Hotchkiss Tryon in the 1850s. After his death, the land was divided among his descendents and then sold to the Oregon Iron Company. The Iron Co. logged it for their foundry in Lake Oswego. There was a huge forest fire in 1900, and you can still see some of the charring on snags and stumps in the park. Friends of Tryon Creek Park was created after the 1960s, and eventually convinced the state to permanently protect it.

Dense brush over the river at High Bridge

Terry Riley Bridge

Saturday, May 27, 2006

Bush the Green

I've been thinking about how often Bush gets slammed as a pariah on the environment, which is expected. Frankly, sometimes it seems like the left doesn't really think they have to spend time thinking about it; Republicans and Conservatives are bad for the environment. Right?
Well, no. Actually, Bush has been better on the Environment than most Presidents have lately. Don't believe me? I'm not surprised, seeing as how the press has avoided good news that helps the President like they would a leper at a Republican fund raiser.
However, some people have noticed.
One is tempted to ask whether they are being Clintonesque, with nothing depending upon their definitions of nothing. But assuming they were being honest, one can only wonder where they gathered their evidence that the Bush administration was doing nothing.
Obviously it was not from reading Gregg Easterbrook in The New Republic, who in February last year, wrote: "[T]he notion that Bush has done nothing at all about greenhouse gases can only be sustained if you ignore what he has done."
Duane Freese goes on to discuss a few of the things that the administration has accomplished that help the environment. One is programs to reduce methane emission, which is far more powerful that carbon dioxide. They have also produced 60 programs designed to reduce emissions of carbon equivalent greenhouse gases by 500 metric tons through 2012. But that doesn't seem to register with environmental types.
Where the administration runs afoul of its critics' demands -- and is considered to be doing nothing -- is in the promotion of caps on carbon emissions. The critics want to force carbon-emitting industries to cap emissions and then allow those who reduce their emissions below their cap to sell credits to those who fail to meet them. But such cap and trade schemes would do little to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Without China and India participating, costly carbon caps will prompt the movement of industrial emissions abroad -- where they will likely be spewed out in greater amounts through dirtier technology.
And, in truth, Kyoto is failing left and right. Canada and Europe are not going to be able to meet their own standards under that treaty.
But truthfully, even this article doesn't really cover all the pro-environmental moves that Bush has made over the course of his 5 years in office. Easterbrook over the years has logged many other programs and administrative rule changes, as well as standards and bills that the President has championed, including the toughest standards on industrial mercury emissions in history. The President has been fully behind the U.S. participation in the Pacific Rim treaty that cuts greenhouse emissions, but does it in a more effective way than Kyoto.
Bush also gets trashed for recinding all those poorly thought out edicts that Clinton handed down in his final days in office (truly Clinton's only real environmental claim to fame). But what people fail to realize, and what the left chooses to ignore, is that apart from the Roadless Initiative, Bush has reistated most of the environmental rule changes that Clinton put into place. He just temporarily suspended them while giving the new Secretaries of the Interior and Agriculture time to review them.
While I have problems with Bush's politics in many areas, at least I'm honest about what he has and has not done. It constantly amazes me that some people seem to just want to believe what's not true so they have an excuse to hate the President.

Friday, May 26, 2006

Memorial Weekend Flag Planting


Traditionally, May 30th is Memorial day, although the United States celebrates it on the last Monday in the month of May. And we all generally take a 3 day weekend. There are many stories about how and when Memorial Day was started. It's probably true that most of them have truth, as it's not unreasonable to assume that there were many places where people honored their fallen heroes by decorating their grave sites. But the official start was when General John A. Logan declared that there would be a day of celebration, honoring all the fallen soldiers of the Civil War by decorating the gravestones of all Union AND Confederate soldiers. That day would be May 30th, 1868.
The southern states didn't celebrate that day, even though the northern states honored both confederate and union soldiers. However, after WWI, the day of remembrance was changed to include all soldiers from all wars, and then the southern states started celebrating the same day.
In 1971, Congress passed the National Holiday Act, which established every last Monday in May as the recognized celebration day, in order to facilitate a federal 3 day weekend.
Here's the text of the proclamation that Gen. Logan made:

GENERAL ORDER NO. 11
1. The 30th day of May, 1868, is designated for the purpose of strewing with flowers or otherwise decorating the graves of comrades who died in defense of their country during the late rebellion, and whose bodies now lie in almost every city, village and hamlet churchyard in the land. In this observance, no form of ceremony is prescribed, but posts and comrades will in their own way arrange such fitting services and testimonials of respect as circumstances may permit.
We are organized, comrades, as our regulations tell us, for the purpose , among other things, "of preserving and strengthening those kind and fraternal feelings which have bound together the solders, sailors, and marines who united to suppress the late rebellion. What can aid more to assure this result than by cherishing tenderly the memory of our heroic dead, who made their breasts a barricade between our country and its foes?Their soldier lives were the reveille of freedom to a race in chains, and their deaths the tattoo of rebellious tyranny in arms. We should guard their graves with sacred vigilance. All that the consecrated wealth and taste of the nation can add to their adornment and security is but a fitting tribute to the memory of her slain defenders. Let no wanton foot tread rudely on such hallowed grounds. Let pleasant paths invite the coming and going of reverent visitors and fond mourners. Let no vandalism of avarice or neglect, no ravages of time testify to the present or to the coming generations that we have forgotten as a people the cost of a free and undivided republic.
If other eyes grow dull, other hands slack, and other hearts cold in the solemn trust, ours shall keep it well as long as the light and warmth of life remain to us.
Let us, then, at the time appointed gather around their sacred remains and garland the passionless mounds above them with the choicest flowers of spring-time; let us raise above them the dear old flag they saved from dishonor; let us in this solemn presence renew our pledges to aid and assist those whom they have left among us a sacred charge upon a nation's gratitude, the soldier's and sailor's widow and orphan.
2. It is the purpose of the Commander-in-Chief to inaugurate this observance with the hope that it will be kept up from year to year, while a survivor of the war remains to honor the memory of his departed comrades. He earnestly desires the public press to lend its friendly aid in bringing to the notice of comrades in all parts of the country in time for simultaneous compliance therewith.
3. Department commanders will use efforts to make this order effective.
By order of
JOHN A. LOGAN,
Commander-in-Chief
N.P. CHIPMAN,
Adjutant General

Every year, just before the Memorial Day weekend, hundreds of Boy Scouts and Cub Scouts gather at Willamette National Cemetery in Portland, just like they do across the nation, and celebrate our fallen heroes by placing an American flag at the foot of each grave stone.
First they have a memorial service, where the colors are displayed by the Marines, some words are said by veterans and the Scout district headmaster. Each troop and pack's colors are shown (see above), and all the veterans buried in the cemetery are given a 21 gun salute. Many of the kids weren't ready for the guns, and visibly jolted when the first round (there were 7 guns) went off. To top it off, a bagpipe was played to the tune of Amazing Grace, and a bugler played taps.
And, yes, it rained on us virtually the entire time.
After that the scouts were dismissed and sent to pre-assigned sections, where there were boxes of flags handed out to teams for placement at the headstones. Each scout was to place the flag at the bottom center of the stone, read the name on the stone, and then solute that soldier. The scout master made the point during the ceremony that 90% of the graves don't get visitors during the weekend, so it was our job to honor each and every one.
It was an honor doing so, and it was amazing to read the lifespans of many of them. I saw markers for veterans of wars from the Spanish-American war in 1898 all the way to the Vietnam war. Many fought in more than one, and at least one stone recorded that soldier's participation in WWI, WWII and the Korean War.
Click on each picture to get a larger image. The cemetery is overwhelmingly picturesque, and set high on Mt. Scott with some outstanding views of Portland. While it's not as large and grand as Arlington National Cemetery in Washington DC, it is certainly its equal in beauty.
Driving around you'll come across a very nice Korean War memorial set up with the names of Oregon soldiers that died during the conflict. I ran out of shots on the camera, otherwise I would have posted a picture of it.

Monday, May 22, 2006

Da Vinci musings

I was driving home this evening listening to the news, when I thought I heard the list of movie receipts for the weekend. Yes, there they were. And the radio was claiming that the Da Vinci Code had the highest by far on the weekend, and was set to break all sorts of records. Or something to that effect.

I was at the same time sickened, in the way that one would be if he learned that millions of people had voluntarily walked into Nazi gas chambers, and unsurprised.

I say unsurprised because I was having an Email conversation with a friend of mine last week regarding the release of the film and he sent me this little snippet from Peggy Noonan:

I do not understand the thinking of a studio that would make, for the amusement of a nation 85% to 90% of whose people identify themselves as Christian, a major movie aimed at attacking the central tenets of that faith, and insulting as poor fools its gulled adherents. Why would Tom Hanks lend his prestige to such a film? Why would Ron Howard? They're both already rich and relevant. A desire to seem fresh and in the middle of a big national conversation? But they don't seem young, they seem immature and destructive. And ungracious. They've been given so much by their country and era, such rich rewards and adulation throughout their long careers. This was no way to say thanks.

And I responded that it made perfect sense for people who routinely walk around parading the fact that they have no faith in anything except money to make a movie based on a uber best seller. How many of the people in this country that claim to be Christian are not just doing so because they feel some cultural affinity for the religion, or they somewhat believe in God, but only one they can contain.

I mean look at the book sales.

This article was written last week, as well, when at the time critics were giving the thing such a tongue lashing that any reasonably self proclaiming pundit who wanted an easy prediction with which to stun the masses could latch onto and write a column of doom. I have to admit that after reading reviews like this, and this it’s hard to want to see the thing at all.

The one thing that really shocked me was the movie's underlying intention, stated several times with great clarity: the depth and passion of its anti-Christian, anti-monotheism craziness. To say the movie wishes actually to be the anti-Christ would only sound extravagant; still that is the constant and underlying message. The "heroes" of the film have to save the world from the oppression and injustice brought into it, not only by Christianity, but by all monotheistic religions.

Nice. The New York Times:

"The Da Vinci Code," which opened the Cannes Film Festival on Wednesday, is one of the few screen versions of a book that may take longer to watch than to read.

Michael Novak:

In short, there is enough in this film to offend everybody.

Afterwards, I sure felt like a strong double bourbon. And I felt eager to forget as soon as I can the sheer malicious hatred that swirls up from this film.

Rolling Stone (Hat tip Moderate Voice):

There's no code to decipher. Da Vinci is a dud — a dreary, droning, dull-witted adaptation of Dan Brown's religioso detective story that sold 50 million copies worldwide.

Conservative elements in the Catholic Church are all worked up over a plot that questions Christ's divinity and posits a Vatican conspiracy to cover up Jesus Christ's alleged marriage to Mary Magdalene and to drive all things feminine from the church. Here's the sure way to quiet the protesters: Have them see the movie. They will fall into a stupor in minutes. I know it bored me breathless.

And these are just a few, believe me. So why is the movie doing so well? Is it because when Catholics squawk people yearn to defy the church and go see it in defiance? That’s certainly been brought up by a number of people. What if the church had just let this alone (please humor my leap into the impossible for a moment)?

How many people these days actually do stuff because the church actually tells them to? Really. Considering the slide in spiritual faith over the last 40 years, I’m surprised that the culturally secular segment of American society even stops to notice that the church even exists these days, except perhaps to snark condescendingly at them whenever a priest does something he shouldn’t have (which reminds those of us in the faith how close we all are to crossing the line).

The best argument against the church being the instigator in all this comes from a guy named David Wayne.

Could it be that the church has been faithfully telling the story all along and the world doesn't find it compelling because they hate Jesus? Of course we've butchered the story many times, but this whole idea that the world finds DVC compelling because we have failed to make the true story compelling is patently false. The true story of Jesus tells us that if we tell the story truly, the world will not find it compelling, rather they will reject it. Thus, it is far more likely that the world finds DVC more compelling simply because it tells the story of a Jesus who is more to its liking.

Zing! Read John 15:18-25.

Ok, so last week I was Ill and bedridden, so I finally settled down and read the Da Vinci Code in full. Just short of 500 pages in paperback, it’s not exactly the most intriguing page turner in history, but Brown’s not all that bad a writer, and it had enough movement and a great mystery to solve with some pretty inventive cryptography to help with the mystery. That part was fun.

The hard part is that he interspersed the entire book with this heavy and frequent lathering of conspiracy history and pagan religious history from two of the main characters. You have to admit, that Brown really did his homework here. He found probably every disparate bit of pagan and religious and cultural information that sounded feminine in any way and tied them together into a semi convincing religion. On paper anyway.

Once you get away from the story, his religion really falls apart. I though this part of the book was the most tedious anyway. I hate conspiracy themes in books, or at least this one (and the last one I read) dragged the rest of the book down a bit. It was just too hard to believe in certain sections.

The book is written to be exciting and full of "facts" that support the main protagonists and the quest that they are on. You get the impression that they are the good guys and the Catholics are the real bad guys. The facts presented seemed to outlandish to be believed, and one thing about novels like this is that if you are going to build a story on something as weird as a conspiracy theory or that challenges current dogma, you'd better back up where you are getting all this stuff. He writes a lot like Michael Crichton, except that Crichton is brainy, convincing and doesn't get all weird about spiritualist stuff. Crichton also backs up what he writes about. In the one book where he presents factoids to support his plot line, State of Fear, which is about global warming, he has pages of notes and references in the back supporting his story. It felt like Brown was making the stuff up as he went, and it was hard to tell what was fact and what was fiction.

Many of the other "facts" Brown presents can be easily rendered bunk by simple googling. At one point I even caught him contradicting something he had earlier said in the book. I can't remember it now, but distinctly recall saying to myself, "Hey, you just wrote the complete opposite about 50 pages ago."

The only part of Christianity that Brown seems to want to talk about and present as the main antagonist in the story is the Catholic Church. As if the Catholics are the only true vestiges of Christianity that Brown needs to deal with. This makes his plot easier to create and follow, because you can believe that Rome was involved with all sorts of underhanded and evil stuff way back when. Think Inquisition and the corruption that leads to the Reformation (which Brown never mentions). Makes me think that Brown is an ex-Catholic, the religion leaving a bad taste in his mouth. However as an ex-Catholic myself, growing up in that environment didn't make me aware of accurate doctrine, and not surprisingly, Brown seems to ignore or be totally unaware of Biblical doctrine. He treats the Jewish religion and the Christian religion as two separate religions, and many of his suppositions fall apart considering how the ancient Jewish religion flows into Christianity. Christianity didn't "start" with Christ's birth, but Brown treats it as though it did.

I would assume that real theological lore about pagan mysticism does contain a lot of what Brown used, albeit unsupported lore. But this controversy probably wouldn't be happening if Brown had just come out and said, "Hey, it's fiction, get over it. I made stuff up and connected things together artificially to support my plot." No, he had to come out and say that most of the information was true and try to defend his research. I think that's what has people in a bunge. There are poor hapless souls who fall for this sort of fiction as reality crap.

The more I talk to people, the more I hear that Brown is saying that it’s only a movie/book and shouldn’t take fiction seriously. So I’m thinking that Brown is an opportunist. He plays to the audience he’s in front of. If it’s an audience of fans he’s all about the authenticity of his research. If it’s a skeptical reporter he says it’s only fiction.

But even spiritually, Wayne thinks that Brown will defend himself like the weasel he writes into the story.

It won't be hard to press against the book and the movie. All kinds of people from all kinds of places have already debunked the main tenets of the Da Vinci Code and anyone who is willing to look at the evidence should be able to see that pretty quickly.

So I think there will be a fall back position for Da Vinci Code advocates and I think we can already see what that fallback position will be.

The fallback position is on pages 341-342 of the book. Sophie Neveu is questioning Robert Langdon about the advisability of making their secret knowledge of Christ known to the world.

Langdon smiled. "Sophie, every faith in the world is based on fabrication. That is the definition of faith - acceptance of that which we imagine to be true, that which we cannot prove."

Lastly, for the time being, read the entire TCS article by Bainbridge. He shows how the story is basically a thin story on top of a few amalgamated, but ancient, heresies against the church. He also takes the time to dig up some information on the early church, rendering some of Browns facts null.

I’ll leave you with the part of the story that made it all hard for me to believe. The entire plot is wrapped around a secret society that has existed for 1000 years protecting the family descendents of Mary Magdelene, who they claim was actually Christ’s wife. The two primary characters of the story, Langdon and Teabing, spend so much time relating the vast history of the society and their leaders and movements, you have to wonder how good these guys actually were about keeping secrets. It’s a wonder the early Church didn’t come in and shut them down after the first few meetings.

World's Newest Country

Today the tiny region of Montenegro of old Yugoslavia held a poll and voted itself into nationhood.  They separated from Serbia with over 55% of the vote.

      The official results are expected today. If, as expected, the prediction is confirmed, it will establish a new small state in the Balkans and leave a shrunken Serbia nursing intense grievances from 15 years of Yugoslav disintegration. But while the margin of victory appeared solid, the projection was close enough to the threshold set by the EU to make a dispute over the outcome almost inevitable.

The region is only about 10% native Montenegrin, the rest are Serbian.  So you figure it out.  Serbia here is the big loser, and they have to see it that way.   Boy are they sore losers.

      The leader of the pro-Serbia unionist side, Predrag Bulatovic, refused to concede defeat and talked of "destabilisation" and "tricks."

Not being able to bury the hatchet and put the past behind them, but stew on their ill fortune and loss of libido, is not conducive to keeping it all together.  As if losing Bosnia, Croatia and Slovenia years ago didn’t send a flashing red signal to Belgrade, this sure will.  Serbia will go down in history as yet another community of people who thought they  had some God given right to dominate the other cultures of an artificial construct of post-WWI Europe.  They picked the wrong era of humanity to try and pull that kind of stuff off in, as Western culture decided it was better to split all that up.  And thus three new countries were born in the 90s.

Instead of learning a lesson about being human, they decided to pick on what little they had left, as bullies often will.  Those kind folks didn’t take that well either, and now negotiations in Vienna appear to have the region of Kosovo joining the Montenegrins in fast retreat.

The separation won’t be immediate, and they are still competing in this year’s World Cup as one nation.  Sort of swan song for the old country.  I raise a toast to the passing state of Yugoslavia.  They gave us Tito.  They gave us really cheep little cars.  They gave us a memorable winter Olympics and something useful for our last President to do overseas.  We note that the only thing constant in our world is change, and wish the poor bitter people of Serbia well, and hope they don’t try anything rash as a result of all this.

Hat tip to Publius.

Sick Week

I have to now apologize for being out all last week.  There are only a few people out there who read my blog on a regular basis.  And by regular I mean more than once in a blue moon.   I mean they don’t read my posts just because they did a topical google and it came up 22nd.

I’ve been pretty ill with the flu since last Wednesday, and only now am recovering.  I’m well enough, but am feeling pretty weak from fighting the microscopic beasts.  I got to read a couple of books while I was out of it.  One was the Da Vinci Code, which was OK and difficult all at the same time.  Perhaps I’ll blog about it, since the movie is out and everyone is talking about it.

The other book was Old Man’s War, by John Scalzi.  Great book.  Very Heinlein, with a touch of Orson Scott Card thrown in.  There’s a lot of Cursing, but since everyone is in the military in the story I didn’t think any of it was beyond reason.  Some of it fit well into the story and was quite humorous too.  I recommend it (not the cursing, I mean the book).

During all this time, my wife, who took extra good care of me for 5 days, did her best to keep me away from our only home computer.  Quarantined, you might say. 

Great to be back.

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Sri Lanka Civil War

Civil war looming in Sri Lanka, as the Tamil Tigers attack military boats, killing 20 soldiers. The war that was put on hold a few years ago is looking like it's heading up again. Hat tip to Winds of Change.
The escalation in violence could mark a return to civil war, as a 2002 cease-fire that stopped almost two decades of fighting appears increasingly unlikely to last.
The Tigers began fighting in 1983 to create a separate state for ethnic minority Tamils, accusing the majority Sinhalese of discrimination. More than 65,000 people died in the conflict before the 2002 truce.