Tuesday, November 16, 2004
UNSCAM
Also he finds this Reuters article correcting the amount that Sadaam profited during the 90s. The article asks: "How could the world be so blind..." to which Glenn answers: "I think the answer is that they were not so much blind as in on the cut."
Is anyone here besides me amazed at the speed at which Bush is replacing cabinet members? I don't think any of the resignations in the last couple of weeks have been a surprise to the Bush administration. These all seem like they were expected, and Bush had his replacement choices ready to go.
I like that Rice is staying with the Bush administration, taking over as Sec of State. There were rumors over the last year that she wanted to go back to academic life. My only reservation about her appointment comes from a mildly racist thought: how affective will Rice be with nations where patriarchy runs strong. I.E. in nations where women are not taken seriously, will they take her seriously?
On the flip side, having a black woman - a perfectly capable one - in such a visible spot in the world will hopefully have a very positive effect on women all over the world (especially in those patriarchal countries).
Update: This from a reader at Instapundit...
The media is overlooking something. Not only is Rice the first female black Secretary of State, she's the first black person to replace another black cabinet official of any gender.
And do I need to mention this is the first administration to have two black Secretaries of State?<>
Thank God for the GOP's affirmative action stance. Namely, "may the best person win.">
Great to see that this form of protest is still alive and well, even here in the United States. Apparently some disgruntled Yemeni terror informant set himself on fire in front of the White House. He is in critical condition now. (ed-They rescued him?)
In interviews with the Washington Post prior to the incident, Alanssi said he was angry about not being able to visit his family in Yemen. He said his wife is seriously ill with stomach cancer, and he cannot travel there because he has no money and because the FBI, which is expecting him to testify at a terrorism trial in New York, was keeping his Yemeni passport.Ah.
Monday, November 15, 2004
This national wildlife refuge, primarily designed for Pronghorns, is located in eastern Oregon, closer to the border with Nevada. Here's a map.
RoguePundit has a look into the politics of this area, as the refuge has a 15 year ban on livestock grazing which ends in 5 years. The reason for the ban was to try and improve the pronghorn and grouse populations in the refuge. This has happened, but as Roguepundit explains, the science of why that has happened may get lost in the debate.
See while cattle might be bad for the area, and harm pronghorn numbers, cattle grazing isn't the only thing that has changed since the ban took effect. Number one: the drought that long affected the area ended that year, and the last 10 years have seen some pretty good rainfall overall. Number two: when the refuge ban went into affect, most of the cattle related fences were taken down. Fences are a major barrier to pronghorn, as they are fast but not good jumpers. Number three: Prescribed burning has been practiced there recently, in an effort to bring the vegitation back to a more natural state. Number four: Coyotes have remained moderately few even with the increased number of pray in the refuge, helping the increase of other animals.
Really, which one of these issues is the real reason that wildlife is doing so well. The question needs to be, what effect will bringing back cattle have in the face of all these other changes?
Each of them has a special message today about Blogging in post-invasion Iraq. Congratulations boys.
Iraq the Model was mentioned in that article I posted about Saturday. They spend considerable time talking about blogs in countries like Iraq, Iran and China. If you haven't read it, do so.
Scanning Yahoo this morning I noticed this article. NASA has already tested a plane travelling at 5000 miles an hour, but now want to test the X-43A "Scramjet" that is estimated to travel at 7000 miles an hour, about 10 times the speed of sound.
Saturday, November 13, 2004
I haven't been blogging as long, or as prolifically as some. My writing and logic may not compete with the experts in the fields. But this is still an exciting thing to do. I find that it allows me to keep track of certain facts that I find in the blogosphere and to make comments and solidify my thinking on certain things.
It also gives me the opportunity to research and learn about things myself, like my past posts on countries of the world, and of the Oregon state measures during this last election.
If you have wondered about the history of blogs and how much of the world they penetrate, then I recommend reading this article by Daniel Drezner and Henry Farrell for Foreign Policy online called "Web of Influence". Foreign Policy doesn't publish small articles. They publish essays. So pull up a cozy cushon and adjust the fire tonight. Pour yourself a glass of wine and dig in. It is an interesting look at the blogosphere, even for a seasoned blogger.
Thursday, November 11, 2004
Joe Katzman over at Winds of Change has some in depth analysis and status report on the battle. He has some links to great maps of the action too. Here's one:
Winds of Change has been blogging up a storm lately, and since I have been out of town I have been trying to catch up. There's always lots going on in the world. Take a few minutes and get caught up yourself.
Here is their Latin America briefing. Nate's Central Asia Summary. A Russia briefing, and the weekly Winds of War, detailing what's going on in the war on terror.
Heck, just go to Winds of Change and keep scrolling. It's all good this week.
Also, here is a Asia roundup of blogs and news from the far east from SimonWorld.
Winds of Change has been blogging up a storm lately, and since I have been out of town I have been trying to catch up. There's always lots going on in the world. Take a few minutes and get caught up yourself.
Here is their Latin America briefing. Nate's Central Asia Summary. A Russia briefing, and the weekly Winds of War, detailing what's going on in the war on terror.
Heck, just go to Winds of Change and keep scrolling. It's all good this week.
Also, here is a Asia roundup of blogs and news from the far east from SimonWorld.
Tuesday, November 09, 2004
Via Instapundit, this is great news. Read the Christian Science Monitor report.
Into this fray comes the 322nd Air Expeditionary Group of the US Air Force, based in Ramstein, Germany. They set up camp at Rwanda's main airport, surrounded by rolling hills and turquoise mountain lakes. From there they've ferried troops, supplies, and equipment - including armored personnel carriers - 1,000 miles north into Darfur. Besides planes, the US has pledged $300 million to the Darfur effort. The European Union has also pledged $125 million. The money and airplanes are crucial because African countries notoriously have little of either. But they do have troops - something America has been reluctant to put in Africa since 18 US rangers were killed in Somalia in 1993.And also read this analysis by Intel Dump.
I'm heartened that the U.S. has decided to commit what it can to the Sudan operation — even if it's not enough in my opinion. Moreover, this model demonstrates that you don't always have to go in heavy to make a difference.
Thursday, November 04, 2004
RoguePundit is a blog I enjoy reading. I don't always agree with him, but most of his posts are neutral, and he is a thinker in the blog realm. A thinker is someone who spends lots of words on one subject, as opposed to a linker, who spends all their time making short comments on stuff they link to. Instapundit is a linker. Roguepundit is a thinker.
He makes this comment that I really liked, but has much more in this post. Read the whole thing.
The Democrats still haven't learned how to be an effective minority party, in part because they've never accepted the fact that a number of their beliefs are not mainstream. The denial about that is profound, especially in places like Oregon. Enough lashing out...time for some soul searching. If you don't want to change, then learn to convince your opponents, not demean them...that takes time and effort. Enough of the petulant statements like "If Bush wins, I'll go to New Zealand." Democracy means accepting winning as well as losing, all the while working to improve the nation.
Sorry I've been out of town. And for the whole election - shame on me.
Well, here is a nice election map by county from USAToday.com. I tell you, as I look at this, that the divide between rural America and Urban America looks more and more defined. Bush won such a larger mass of the American landscape this time it kind of looks like a mandate from the map.
Update: ESRI has a great 3D election map by county. They also have their own regular county map, but more filled in than the USA Today map.
CBS also should have a lot of ESRI generated demographic maps related to the election, like where the candidates spent their money. The ESRI site has a flash presentation of the maps, but it flashes too quickly to see any of them in great detail. I can't find these maps on the CBS site.
Friday, October 29, 2004
For many of you in this county of Oregon, there is a measure out there sponsored by the East Multnomah Water and Soil Conservation District that we have to vote on. The Ballot measure reads thus:
Shall the District be authorized to have a permanent rate limit of $0.10 per
$1,000 assessed value beginning FY 2005-2006?
Now it says "rate limit" but the district is not allowed to impose taxes directly on land owners in the county at the moment. They get all their funding from the county. This measure would allow them to tax us separate from the county. I think the way this measure is written is very misleading. I wish I had caught this sooner so I could have warned more people, but with vote by mail in Oregon, most people I know have already voted.
Here's an interesting article in the Oregonian about 26-71. The thing I noticed was that the county is a little miffed that the District went straight to the voters and didn't consult the county at all.
The Green Party and the Johnson Creek Water Conservation folks are for it. Big shock.
Oregon Watchdog is against it. Again: shocked.
Thursday, October 28, 2004
Where's my vote? Well I'll tell you. I was going to be more private about it, but most pundits on-line are giving in and telling who they are voting for.
President: Bush(R) I haven't been obvious about that, have I?
Senator: King(R) the unknown Republican. The Lib doesn't have a chance
Representative, Dist 3: Tami Mars(R) there is no libertarian running
Sec of State: Betsy Close(R) If only because of what Bradbury did to Nader
Tresurer: Shultz(L) Shouldn't a libertarian be the fiscal tzar of the state? Yes
Attny Gen: Myers(D) I have no beef with the job Myers has done
Measure 31: Yes
Measure 32: Yes
Measure 33: Yes?
Measure 34: No
Measure 35: Yes
Measure 36: Yes
Measure 37: No
Measure 38: No
Tuesday, October 26, 2004
Did Colin Powell really say this?
There is only one China. Taiwan is not independent. It does not enjoy sovereignty as a nation, and that remains our policy, our firm policy. And it is a policy that has allowed Taiwan to develop a very vibrant democratic system, a market economic system and provided great benefits to the people of Taiwan.And if he really said that, does the 2nd part of this sentence really jive with the first part? Later on in the interview he says that the US will protect Tiawan from China if China gets aggressive. If we think that Tiawan is really part of China, then why are we protecting it?
I don't understand this position. At all.
Here's the transcript of the interview.
OK, this article by Jennifer Loven of the AP has a really slanted title. If you only read the title and first few paragraphs you would get the impression that the president has shirked his duties, and isn't he a naughty boy for doing so. Here's the title:
Bush Cuts President Duties for Campaign
I mean the president of the united states for goodness sakes. He has a responsability to keep working at all times and not distract himself with this piddily little election business.
Oh, yeah, then you read a bit further, 5th paragraph:
Moreover, Democratic challenger John Kerry (news - web sites) isn't exactly winning a best-senator award as he tries to unseat Bush. The Massachusetts senator has participated in just 17 of 211 votes since January.But, but, but... Bush is bad for doing it. Waaahhhh! Yes, the next paragraph has a "But with fall typically a busy time at the White House, Bush has set aside many of at least the public functions of his job." And you never hear about Kerry again.
The article then proceeds to tell you all the things that Bush is actually doing related to his job, and they sound pretty extensive to me. Getting security updates every day. Meeting with advisors, since pretty much the entire oval office staff and advisors can accompany him on Air Force One. He meets with legislators in their home states, instead of in the White House. And this is just since August, where the article admits that he was doing his job regularly up until that point.
If you read the whole article you get a better picture of what Bush is doing, but if you are like most people and read the title only, or the first couple of paragraphs it reads like a slant piece.
Here are some questions from the National Geography Bee. See how many you can get. The site doesn't have the answers, so I don't know how you are going to check yourself, but it's fun to see how much you know. The first few are easy, but they get harder. I can't answer the last one.
Actually, here is the official Geography Bee site. It has a daily quiz. Try it out.
And signed by the president on the 18th. It has been watered down from it's original form by various committees in contress, but at least it's something. I note that the general media has ignored this so far.
I wish that we had the resources to address this situation effectively, but since Iraq is happening, we don't. I'm not down on what we are doing in Iraq, and the war on terror is important, but this situation needs to be dealt with, and the UN is pretty much just sitting with it's hands under it's ass on this one.
Really, when most of the countries in the UN signed the resolution that things like what happened in Germany would never happen again, were they just talking out of their butts in order to look cooperative and just? I don't know why I have any faith in the UN at all these days.
If there is any argument as to why we need to rescue the people of North Korea from the likes of Kim Jong Il, and you have a strong stomach, read this letter from a child who was interned at one of the prison camps there. Like the guys at Winds of Change said, simply horrifying.
Michael Totten has a great article weighing the merits of including Turkey in the EU.
Roguepundit has an article about a law, which is actually a voluntary program, in California, encouraging forest land owners to not cut trees. Based on the Climate Action Registry, it monitors carbon dioxide storage levels in forests. There is no real incentive for landowners to do this, except that they might be ahead of the game if and when Cali makes the program manditory.
The problem with this, like so many other environmental regulations in California, is that it's not really based on great science.
This concept is the same one that was brought up in the Kyoto agreement during the 90s. Companies and nations get points for the amount of trees they have (simplified version). But it doesn't really work that way, as Roguepundit points out also, as younger trees absorb more carbon dioxide than older trees, and in developed countries like ours, most of the wood goes into manufacturing, which releases less CO2, than in developing countries where the wood is burned for fuel, which releases most of the CO2.
California already has the toughest environmental regulations in the world regarding timber harvesting. Most of it is tedious, and much of it is not based on hard science. Urban enviros continually push this nonsense on the rural land owners. Their faith in the "science" behind this is almost religious.
Sorry, off my soap box now.
Friday, October 22, 2004
Roguepundit has a great post today on Initiative 297 in Washington, trying to stop the used nuclear waste from coming into Washington, to Hanford specifically, by turning Hanford into a national park.
It's basically a NIMBY response to storing waste. My interest in this is that RogueP links to an online map of nuclear reactors and storage facilities in the US. Get yourself educated as to where all these sites are currently.
Thursday, October 21, 2004
I had to speak about this. My wife was looking through the voter's guide yesterday and noticed, where I didn't, that the first three or so FOR statements for measure 36, the "one man one woman" measure, are pretty rediculous.
As a Christian I know where I stand on what God says is right, but I still fight intellectually about whether or where in government I should be pushing to reflect God's wisdom on this issue.
The author of these statements, however, seems to have no issue with that.
In the Holy Bible, Saint Paul says that Christians should remain single and abstain from sex. The New Testament says that people should get married only if they are too weak-willed to abstain from sex:
"It is well for a man not to touch a woman…. It is well … to remain single as I do. But if they cannot exercise self-control, they should marry. For it is better to marry than to be aflame with passion." (I Corinthians 7:1, 8-9)
Marriage is not sacred. Marriage is for wimps and sissies!
It gets worse.
The sissy institution of marriage must not be perverted by sinners who are capable of abstaining! The sacred union of church and state must prohibit the immoral union of men and women capable of the discipline of sexual abstinence. We are not saved by either faith or good works. We are saved by religious-right legislation!
Freedom of religion and equal treatment under law is simply the special right to sin, because our tradition is the one and only truth! And our tradition (that is, our personal moral opinions) should become law.
AGREE WITH US OR BURN IN HELL!
There are two other statements in favor of the amendment with the same tone. They are all by the same person, M. Dennis Moore, who represents some apparently made up PAC type entities. Notably, "Traditional Prejudices Coalition" and "The Beaver State Defense of Beaver Coalition."
Totally tasteless.
Once again, this brings up what I was saying about the comments for Measure 37, where there are a couple of FOR statements by some guy who is advertising buying lots of land and get rich when measure 37 passes.
Is the Sec of State trying not to discriminate who gets arguments published? These arguments seem to me to be either some real nutcase or someone on the opposition side trying to make the FOR side look bigoted and religeously extreme. There's no other explanation.
The last and final measure. Measure 38 has been involved with some controversy, namely some shady dealings involving former Gov. Neil Goldschmidt.
The title reads: ABOLISHES SAIF; STATE MUST REINSURE, SATISFY SAIF'S OBLIGATIONS; DEDICATES PROCEEDS, POTENTIAL SURPLUS TO PUBLIC PURPOSES.
Reading the text of this bill, it seems to do two things. One is to gradually, over a two year period, phase out the State Accident Insurance Fund (SAIF), which insures small businesses in the state. SAIF competes with private insurers covering workman's compensation, which is a business requirement, but for some businesses that have more risk that may not get picked up by private insurers, SAIF is often the only, or less expensive option.
Here are the official sites:
Oregonians for Accountability
Committee for SAIF Keeping
Big yuck-yuck on that second site there. Nice pun.
Anyway, the FOR statements in the voter's pamphlet are mostly from individuals or PACs. I didn't see lots of official organizations in there. The one that stood out was from Liberty Insurance, which to me sounded like a conflict of interest. In fact Liberty is the main backer of the measure.
However the AGAINST crowd had a wealth of diversity, from legislators and the governor, to long lists of businesses that grouped together, and unions.
There are a lot of reasons, personally, why a measure like this would be attractive to me. One is that I don't like the government administration of things the private sector should be doing. The problem with that is that the state requires this type of insurance to be held by businesses, and given the current climate economically we want to encourage small business the most, and SAIF saves small businesses the headache of high cost liability insurance (or no insurance at all, as some private insurers balk at insuring sometimes when the risk is too high). But that leads me to other thoughts that I can't back up right now, such as I wonder what the difference between what SAIF offers and all other private insurers is.
One reason that private insurance for workman's comp costs more is that private insurers are generally for profit, unlike SAIF, which is non-profit. Therefore SAIF can afford lower premiums.
Another reason to like this measure would be accountability. I know opponents say that if you get rid of SAIF you wouldn't have accountability in the system, or that SAIF is accountable, but recent scandals have put a kink in that argument. It's true that SAIF has had ethical investigations and other troubles, but that is not an indictment on whether or not it works and is overall a good or bad thing for the state. It's also true that there are some dissatisfied customers out there, but this is not a monopoly, and the competitive insurance market indicates that there are alternatives.
But there are lots of reasons to like SAIF. Opponents of the measure claim that SAIF is self-sustaining, which is true. Getting rid of it will actually cost the government more money than keeping it. I refer you to the Ballot title of the measure, where the statement of financial impact to the state has this costing the state about 100 million dollars a year. Get that? SAIF is actually in the black by $100 Million. This would make it more self-sustaining than the US Postal Service, which, although theoretically self-sustaining, frequently needs a little help from tax dollars.
The Salem Statesman has a roundup of articles related to SAIF and Measure 38.
Here are two sides of the issue, one for and one against, from the Portland Tribune.
And still another one from the Trib.
The Democratic Party of Oregon opposes it. (In fact they oppose most of the measure this time around and have no position on the others, which has got to be a first.)
The Republican Party of Oregon's site didn't have it readily available what their positions are.
Tuesday, October 19, 2004
Another measure that is generating controversy is yet another measure that land owners to force government to compensate them for imposing regulations that cause land values to drop.
This one is titled: GOVERNMENT MUST PAY OWNERS, OR FORGO ENFORCEMENT, WHEN CERTAIN LAND USE RESTRICTIONS REDUCE PROPERTY VALUE.
Secretary of State site
Here's the for and against folks:
Oregonians in Action
Take a Closer Look Committee
Now as the law stands, if the government condemns a property, reducing it's value to virtually nothing, or taking it for government use. Passing this would force the government to pay the landowners for a reduction on property value for any regulation that reduced the value. The government would have the option of just not enforcing the rule on certain landowners.
This is one of the few measures this year that will have a significant financial impact on the state. 44 million dollars is nothing to sneeze at. The question I think should be here, is 44 million potential dollars spent by the government worth adding the regulations needed? That's a big number to you and me, but it's not a huge number in a state budget (ed-huge enough you might say. Close to 1% of the budget is nothing to sneeze at, but what we are talking about is having the state take a second thought every time they impose some regulation. This stuff doesn't just protect the environment or whatever, it affects people).
I actually misspoke there. The state is only one player in this. I'm not sure if that 44 million is spread over the various state and municipal agencies or not. I would presume that when the city of Portland makes a new regulatory call that the hit is on their budget, not the state's.
Reading the voter's pamphlet, I see that most of the entries FOR the measure come from Farmer's organizations and private citizens. The array of citizens tell some pretty horrifying stories of government regulations costing them (and the government when they sue) lots of money. There are also a few entries from the authors of the measure addressing opponents concerns. They seem to do a good job of that, it's not aggressive or mean spirited at all.
Except: There is a really tasteless entry in the FOR category. I don't know why the Sec of State let this one through. It is really and advertisement for getting rich quick by buying land, stating that this measure will eliminate all zoning and environ mental protections across the state. This was obviously put there by an opponent of the bill. Shame on Peter Bray and Bill Bradbury.
-As far as the opposition goes. Here are some of the concerns about the bill that they bring up:
-The measure is retroactive for all current landowners. It is not just future regulation that is covered but past regulation that affected the land that owners currently have.
-It's complex and will increase paperwork and taxes and that will hurt landowners more.
-The cost to ALL governments, state and local, is more like 344 million dollars (this is a per year estimate, but that doesn't say if that's just for the first two years when the opportunity to apply for past takings occurs or not).
-It's poorly written and vague (you mean like every measure that's every been put before the public?).
-Something about notice to citizens will not longer be required when development is taking place near them.
-It will cause uneven application of new regulations, resulting in lawsuits (well, it seems to me the only options the government has is to pay out or not apply the regulation. How is this uneven?).
-It will create unnecessary bureaucracy and red tape.
-Measure doesn’t say where the money to pay for this would come from.
The players on the NO side are more varied. You have lots of government administrators, including the governor. There are various unions. You've got environmental organizations like the Audubon, and various business and local organizations. Interestingly enough there are also lots of Farming organizations on the NO side too.
After reading the bill, I find many of the arguments of the opposition to be without merit. My own understanding of the process of government may be limited here, but I don't see it. That the results of government zoning and regulations dramatically affect people’s lives is truth.
The only one of the opposition's arguments that gives me pause is that the bill is retroactive. That's the one part I don't like, because that will cost the government more money than it can pay, by far. I generally don't like retroactive effects of bills and measures. You knew the rules when you bought the property before. You may not like them, but that's how the rulebook played. I think the bill should be changed.
But this is just a bill, not an amendment. It's not unheard of that the legislature changes parts of measures that were passed in order to make them work after the fact.
After looking around a bit, the same arguments that are in the pamphlet are being made at most of the sites I visited.
Certainly there is concern about how the government treats landowners. You may not think that this measure is the way to answer that, but RoguePundit answers:
Since our legislature won't come up a reasonable means to compensate landowners for state and local land-use restrictions that cause financial harm, voters are again trying to take things into their own hands, this time with Measure 37. If the folks in Salem would govern more effectively, we wouldn't be approving so many initiatives.Nuff said.
Winds of Change has its Central Asia roundup, including reports on the Afghan elections. Uzbekistan and Kyrgystan are trying to improve relations via military cooperation with NATO countries. Some Oregon State Univ scientists traveled to Uzbekistan to help with the bad cattle problems they are having, and some Uzbekis traveled to central Washington to learn how we farm here. And much much more from a region most of us don't think about often enough.
Conan the Governor is making some interesting noises on how he wants to reform the redistricting of California to solve the problem of gerrymandering. Let the people decide, not the legislators. I like it. Hat tip to the Armed Liberal.
Senator Kerry has made some outlandish statements regarding our attempts to get Bin Laden in Afghanistan when we invaded and afterwards. It's always nice to get the perspective of someone who not only was there, but was the commander of the forces in the Middle East during that time.
Tommy Franks was that guy.
According to Mr. Kerry, we "outsourced" the job to Afghan warlords. As commander of the allied forces in the Middle East, I was responsible for the operation at Tora Bora, and I can tell you that the senator's understanding of events doesn't square with reality.Read the whole thing.
When Bob Schieffer at the third Presidential debate asked the question, "Suddenly we find ourselves with a severe shortage of flu vaccine. How did that happen?"
That was a serious question? How much does the president really have to do with the supply of flu vaccine?
The president started strong on this question, but headed in the wrong direction. Medical lawsuits are a problem, but that has little effect on vaccine distribution. The real problem is that the government protections against price-gouging. Sure, you want to protect the citizens from evil greedy pharmacutical companies, but that causes some other less desireable effects, namely the companies producing the vaccine can't afford to prepare extra in case there is a problem. Since price fixing was put in place, no American company wants to make the vaccine, so we have to go to England and Canada and have the vaccine imported, which presents other risks.
Really this has little to do with the current President, as the price gouging has been in place for a while.
Kerry, by the way just blabbered off into a discussion about how health care in general has deteriorated under Bush and how his plan will bla bla bla... Completely ingnored the question.
Here's a site with some links to comentaries on the vaccine issue. There is also a good commentary from Medipundit comparing Kerry's health care plan to the currently operating one in Tennessee. That's not a compliment, by the way.
Kevin Drum has a good post on this too, although he wraps up the anti-gouging issue in a "regulations" point he makes.
After one of the largest manhunts in history, the man known as the "Demon" of India was killed in a made for Hollywood shootout. This guy was wanted by the police and military for almost 40 years. Killed police, elephants, suspected informants, kidnapped people. He was killed south of Madras in the state of Tamil Nadu (Madras is in the northern corner by the ocean).
Monday, October 18, 2004
This is probably the most controversial measure on the docket this year. At least emotionally. I wonder if the polls would indicate that it really was a close issue. In a sea of Kerry/Edwards signs here in Portland, I do see an awful lot of Yes on 36 signs. People are not afraid to show their sleeves on this one, unlike the Bush supporters. We've seen, after the media made us think that national opinion was basically pro-gay on this issue, that many states are now, by popular votes, defining marriage as between a man and a woman. With the exception of Massachusetts, the nation is fairly still against gay marriage.
The title of the measure is thus: AMENDS CONSTITUTION: ONLY MARRIAGE BETWEEN ONE MAN AND ONE WOMAN IS VALID OR LEGALLY RECOGNIZED AS MARRIAGE
You can go to the Sec of State site and read the text and explanatory statement, but they are pretty brief. Here's the text right here:
It is the policy of Oregon, and its political subdivisions, that only a marriage between one man and one woman shall be valid or legally recognized as a marriage.
That's it.
Here are the official for and against sites:
Defense of Marriage Coalition
No on Constitutional Amendment 36
Now you will see, especially on those two websites above, that there are lots of emotional arguments to both sides of this debate. Let me first do you the respect of telling you where I come from on this issue. I am a 35 year old GIS professional with a wife and two kids. I live in the Portland city limits, but it's really more like mid-county Multnomah. I am an Evangelical Christian. That should do it right there.
But it really doesn't. In the core of my beliefs I hold that God set things up, and he commanded that marriage is between a man and a woman. The question for me is not, it is OK, but what should the government's role be. I do think that any church that professes to be Christian and still maintains that it can marry homosexuals and elevate them to the positions of authority in the church should pick up their bible and study it a bit more. The whole thing.
But this is really a forum on what the Government's role is. I would like to go through some of the arguments on both sides.
Conservatives:
- "Because Oregon laws deserve open debate." Well, this is a reaction of what the Multnomah county commission did earlier this year. It was pretty slimy on their part, and it did contradict current Oregon state law. But I'm not sure open debate is what we are getting right now. If they have a point here it is that at least it's a public vote. But public majorities are not always right. And if this passes in November, the debate ends.
- "Because children do best with a mom and dad." This is not debatable with me. This is actually a good reason to define it on a state and federal level. I understand that some gay people have kids through other marriages and they stay with the gay parent. They probably should stay with a parent if the alternative is worse, or someone who is not their parent. But I believe this statement, because of my faith most of all, but also there has been considerable research that documents the stability of a traditional family unit.
- "Because Oregon law already defines it that way." This is true, but if that is the case why do we need an amendment?
- "Because 40 states already have defense of marriage acts." And that makes it OK? Again the majority thing.
- "Because this is our last chance to save marriage." I don't really buy this all together. As a Christian I am sickened by how unseriously even people of faith take marriage. Most churches turn the other way when divorce happens. The divorce rate among Christians is pretty bad, and we have no one to blame but ourselves. Society is too soft on marriage as well, but we're doing a pretty good job of sullying up marriage on our own. That said, allowing the traditional definition of marriage to linger from man/woman invites a stretching of the definition even further. Where does it end? Will polytheism be next? Where are their rights? I'll get to that in a moment.
See, the constitution doesn't address it specifically and there is a current law defining it. For a judge to say that the current law is not constitutional is stretching the bounds of what judicial power should be. The law as it stands passes the objectivity test. ANY man can marry ANY woman, regardless of race, creed, color, etc. I see what their argument is on this level. This is disturbing because I see judges doing this more and more. I desire to see more deconstructionism in the court, but what I see is courts deciding what THEY think the constitution and law is, not how it was intended.
Liberals:
- "The constitution should not be used to settle partisan or ideological debates." Well, ordinarily I would agree with this statement. And in this case I am reluctant to do so, but I fall into the category I just mentioned (about courts and activism) and don't think that just having the law is enough. I would be against this measure if I though it was. I read someone's opinion that the government should get out of the marriage thing altogether. That would be great, but as long as married people are defined and treated differently in taxes, adoption and other areas, the government needs to define what marriage is. Oregon already has this, but current events caused conservatives to react, and this is how they have.
- "...And it should not be changed in a way that hurts people." Really this change would not do anything but maintain the status quo. This is a flimsy argument.
- "It would deny thousands of gay couples and their families access to health care." Actually this is not a government issue, but an insurance issue. Some insurance companies and businesses already offer this benefit.
- "It would deny survivor rights, inheritance and the ability to make serious medical decisions to gay partners." This is also not true. Really the measure will change nothing. Any two people can make a short trip to their friendly neighborhood lawyer and get a will and power of attorney written up to solve all these problems.
Le Grand debates the issues:
This guy, proclaiming to be a Christian differs from my view, but he has a better argument than most.
Indeed, the law has long recognized marriages that certain churches do not. I routinely perform weddings for couples who cannot or will not marry in churches - including previously divorced people, those of different faiths and those of no faith at all. The law has never required churches to recognize such unions.Yes, but it's still called marriage, and they have the right to adopt and raise children. The article does not talk about the ramifications of opening the door to other civil arrangements, like polygamy, which is a natural progression from this point of view.
However, I submit that a constitution is a document setting out the fundamental organization of government and the principles under which it operates. It also declares the rights of its citizens in relation to the government. It is hardly the place to establish for all time what marriage should be, especially when that serves to deny to some citizens rights enjoyed by others.Not that the Oregon constitution has way too much junk not involved with the general principles and organization of the government already. Not that I don't agree with him, but that's not going to sway anyone.
The ACLU is, of course, against it.
As is the libertarian party. Looking at the voter's pamphlet, other than those two organizations I see a lot of individuals, interest group organizations created for just this election measure and anecdotes on the NO side. On the YES side I don't see much more, but there are lots of legislators and lawyers there, where most of the people on the NO side are unidentified.
I think the real question here is should this be an Amendment. As long as people go into this thinking about that, perhaps we can escape all the emotional crap.
Lord Alton, upon returning from Sudan, reports to Tony Blair what's going on in the Darfur region.
"On my two-day visit, I found that nothing much has changed. The government of Sudan has reneged on its promise to disarm the Janjaweed. Their campaign has the sole objective of eradicating the black tribes and installing the Arabs in their place. If this isn't genocide, then it's difficult to imagine what on earth is."So things aren't improving. The UN actions are not doing anything. Is anyone surprised? Will somebody do something now?
Elections went off well. The turnout was giant, and the violence was non-existent. Interim President Hamid Karzai is the clear runaway winner, but the real winners are the people of Afghanistan. Dispite the lack of security due to there not being enough US troops there, the elections went off almost without a hitch, and the government is doing a good job keeping the warlords from getting uptite and causing trouble.
Winds of Change's Arthur Chrenkoff has a long post (and boy is it long) with lots of links and thoughts on what's going on. Some good and bad, but mostly positive.
It's happened. My wife and I decided, for the first time ever, to put a political sign in our front yard. I happen to favor Bush this year, so we got a small Bush/Cheney 2004 sign and put it in our yard, inside the fence.
I woke up Saturday morning to find my sign gone. Stolen! Not just stolen, but we found the sign later down the street. It had been mangled and the wire frame bent up like a pretzel.
We indeed have some anger management issues.
In an effort to be fair and ballanced, I saw this writeup (hat tip to RoguePundit) outlining the fight against measure 36 (one man-one woman) in the more rural parts of Oregon. Seems people in Klamath Falls are afraid to express dissent for that measure, and stolen signs have been reported.
I do hope that this is just a fringe problem, like a Democrat friend of mine stated lately, but there have been way too many reports this year of things like this and worse.
Friday, October 15, 2004
Oh this is one of the big ones. Measures 33 and 34 have their hot moments, but 35 and 36 are generating real furnace heat.
The measure reads: AMENDS CONSTITUTION: LIMITS NON-ECONOMIC DAMAGES (DEFINED) RECOVERABLE FOR PATIENT INJURIES CAUSED BY HEALTHCARE PROVIDER'S NEGLIGENCE OR RECKLESSNESS.
The text of the bill seems fairly straightforward. It limits lawsuits of patients for non-economic damages. That is pain and suffering, loss of companionship, emotional suffering, interference with stuff other than job related. Stuff like that. It still allows unlimited recoverable reward for medical costs, past and future, and income lost from inability to perform while under medical care.
One paragraph says that the limit is $500k, but later there is a section that determines the annual increase of this limit using some sort of equation that most normal humans don't understand.
The text defines economic and non-economic damages in sections 6 and 7.
Now I like the motive behind this bill. I don't like how lawsuit happy this country has become, and the damage done to our legal system by people who want to sue for every scratch they get is pretty abysmal. The rational they get for trying to pry millions from insurance companies are pretty lame as well.
However, I also believe that if a healthcare provider is truly negligent you want to hit them so that they are forced to change what they are doing, make it economically preventative for them to continue doing something that, while efficient, is detrimental to patients (because of course, MORAL pressure to change is worthless effort, right?). The standard way to do that is to let courts impose huge awards to the plaintiffs for reasons of "mental anguish" and the like.
Really, this measure is not the answer, but I don't know what is. Ironically, I heard some fresh stuff (fresh to me, anyway) from John Edwards in the vice-presidential debate last week regarding lawsuit reform. It involved making the lawyers more responsible for the outcomes of the cases. I'm not sure if that's the answer either, as lawyers may be more skittish about providing services if they get seriously penalized for losing, but at least its another idea.
Bill Kettler of the Jackson County Mail Tribune has an article that lays out both sides of the argument well, including the players and some state by state comparisons:
Proponents of the measure — a coalition that includes physicians, hospitals and insurance companies — say it should pass to ensure that Oregon has enough doctors to deliver babies and treat patients with life-threatening injuries. Opponents — a group that includes trial lawyers, senior and consumer advocates and many labor groups — say it should fail in order to preserve citizens’ rights to trial by jury.He points out what happened to insurance costs of doctors after the previous cap was removed in 1999.
Caps on jury awards are nothing new. Oregon had a cap from 1987 until 1999, when the state Supreme Court ruled it unconstitutional. About 20 other states have caps, including California, Idaho, Colorado, Utah and Texas. Many of those states’ caps are under Oregon’s proposed $500,000 limit, which would be adjustable to account for inflation.
One of the points in there, as well as this advertisement is that controling the size of lawsuits will help east the rising insurance costs in the medical profession. Premiums have skyrocketed in the years since the cap was removed. That may be partially true. The Oregonian (see the add link) points out that caps on damage awards do not directly affect insurance premiums, and the link is uncertain.
Insurance is a game of guessing and statistics. One thing is certain and that the health care industry is under pressure from high insurance costs. There may be plenty of doctors in Oregon, but the costs of insurance premiums are generally passed on to the consumer, and seeing your doctor costs much more that it needs to. The argument for having caps in place is that, as witnessed by the caps that used to be in place, insurance companies don't need to overcompensate when they know the boundaries of how much each claim is going to be. It's not a direct coorelation, but would it make it better?
I'm not sure about all the coorelations. As I said above I'm not sure this is the best way to change the system and reform things. I might just vote against it because I had changing the constitution, when a law might do just as well.
Here's another FOR editorial from the Oregonian
Former Governor Kitzhaber, a former Doctor, and current Governor Kulongoski, a former trial lawyer, are on opposite sides of this debate. Guess which is for and which is against.
The Portland Alliance has a lengthy document against the changes.
Here's the Yes on 35 website.
Here's the official no on 35 website.
Winds of change had a great summary of all the votor fraud/intimidation scandals that are out there. He made a point to note that this is bi-partisan and has examples of foul play on both sides of the aisle. Although he notes
Fund, who has written Stealing Elections: How Voter Fraud Threatens Our Democracy, describes the extent of this problem. It's not exclusive to one party, as he notes very clearly, but let's just say that there's strong Democratic Party representation in the case studies.Katzman notes the RNC campaign office shootings, yard sign destructions, votor fraud incidents currently in the mix, and the Florida "purge" lists.
Note: I thought I would put the word purge in scare quotes. Don't ask why.
The pamphlets are out in Oregon now for the ballot measures. I assume the candidate pamphlet will come out later. I have been taking a look at some of the measures, and intend to hit measure 35 later today or tomorrow, but everyone should at least breeze through the pamphlet too. The full text of the measure is there, and also the for and against statements. Those statements don't hold much new information for me, as I try to be informed before the pamphlets ever arrive, but who is for and against each measure can be very revealing. I noted that googling each measure or reading the Oregonian's editorial page isn't as revealing as reading the voter's pamphlet.
Just look at who is against measure 33, the Libertarian party and the authors of the original OMMA measure in 1998, gives you a whole new perspective.
Measure 34 is the same way. The litany of people and organizations against that bill is astounding. It includes the Governor, which I did not realize.
Thursday, October 14, 2004
Reports are that the people of Fallujah are rebelling. Against foreign fundamentalist fighters. Apparently they are afraid of the Americans possibly staging an all out offensive there before the election and are taking matters into their own hands. I.E. submission to a secular government and shared power with Shi'ites and Kurds is better than death or imprisonment.
This is a good development, but I wonder what would have happened if we had taken Fallujah by force last spring when all this was still fresh. Would the result have been the same? Would the left have been able to say that things were still terrible if we had shown more force and controlled the Sunni Triangle?
My appologies to all for not blogging for the last week. I have been really crazy busy. As of last Wed. and Thurs. I was rushing to finish my bathroom at home. Late Thursday night (Friday morning, actually) I did a bone-head thing and drove my utility knife into my forearm. Five stitches and 2 hours later I knew my bathroom would not get finished before my sisters arrived, so I at least got the water closet (toilet) and sink in.
I got to spend some quality time with the siblings, which doesn't happen often as they live in New Mexico and New York, so my attention to worldly events suffered.
On the upside, I noticed that RoguePundit has me on the bloglist!!!!!
I am honored, and a bit nervous now as folks other than close friends might actually be reading this blog. Coupled with a new sense of responsability, I will make a more purposeful effort to blog on those subjects that I originally started this blog to do.
That doesn't mean that I will stop talking politics. As of today or tomorrow I will pick back up my journey into the Oregon Measures.
Winds of Change, in addition to their regular regional reports and war on terror roundups (which you all should be reading) has a new one called Media Watch. With a roundup of various stories and opinions about what is currently happening in the media and how it is being watched post Rathergate.
Tuesday, October 05, 2004
I know I haven't written a "Country of the Week" for a while now. I've been listening to the political retoric of the election and spending lots of my free time working on my bathroom at home. I also haven't been linking to Winds Of Change. Here are their recent regional reports.
In Africa, Mugabe is not allowing aid into Zimbabwe and sending his people into a downward spiral, solidifying him on the list of worst world dictators. And more...
Joel Gaines' Iraq Report as all the news you hear about in the media, and much more. He spends time in reports of reconstruction, local happenings and international help. There's so much more going on than you will get from listening to your nightly news.
Cicero has an interesting post on Iran. Yes they are going to develop the bomb. Yes they are funding insurgency in Iraq. Bush has proven he won't sit still for this kind of thing once. Will he do it again? Both he and Kerry haven't spent the time necessary debating this.
Joe Katzman thinks that Kerry sounds like Owen Wilson in "Shanghai Knights."
Update: Here's their Asian subcontinent roundup and their Israeli "roadmap" roundup.
Thursday, September 30, 2004
Michael Totten has this very revealing look at the real France. Not the one you see in pictures. He details the differences in the old style of archetecture, the one that you see in pictures, and the new style, made famous by Le Corbusier. The new style, apparently is boxish, soviet like, and drives your spirit into the ground. The grand old Paris is now just a small part of the ugly landscape that is modern Paris.
He also talks about the problems of immigration and how those who live in those dreary suburbs feel about those who live in the ivory towers of central Paris.
Wednesday, September 29, 2004
In addition to this terrific article by David Brooks in the New York Times comparing the coming elections in Iraq to the elections in El Salvador in 1982, OxBlog takes things a bit further and really sums up how important these elections are, and how important it will be for the entire population of Iraq to accept the elected government as legitimate. OxBlog quote:
Yet because the United States was truly committed to a democratic outcome, it ultimately persuaded the Salvadoran electorate to side with its elected government. On a related note, another fact that Brooks might have pointed out if he had more space was that the democratization of El Salvador facilitated the end of its horrific civil war.
If this Shi'ite-Kurdish state demonstrates respect for its citizens' rights, both personal and political, the residents of Sunni Iraq will begin to ask themselves whether they truly prefer to be ruled by violent Islamic fundamentalists. For the moment, the alternative to fundamentalist dictatorship is American occupation. But if the alternative were an elected Iraqi government, the results might be very different.The elections must take place on schedule. Bush understands that. Kerry seems to also, indicated in recent speeches.
Onto more interesting things to vote on. The title of this measure is: Amends Medical Marijuana Act. Requires marijuana dispensaries for supplying patients/caregivers; raises patient possession limit.
Here’s the Sec of State website explanation of the measure.
According to the explanation, the measure would create a licensing program for distributing pot for patients. You apparently would still be able to distribute to less than 10 patients without a license. The licensed distributors would be subject to lots of auditing, tracking, inspections and such. It also increases the amount that patients can possess at one time. They may possess as much as a pound of cannabis or, if they only harvest once a year, as much as 6 pounds. One other thing it does is add to the list of professionals who can prescribe it, including naturopaths and registered nurses.
This is interesting: “The measure requires a program for indigent patients to receive medical marijuana at no cost from licensed dispensaries.” What’s that about? Free pot?
Here’s a site that is encouraging a yes vote on OregonVotes, who argue that patients who require cannabis and cannot grow it on their own often have a hard time finding legal sources.
Here’s an article displaying the major players involved pro and con. The major objection seems to be the amount that patients can have at any one time. I have to admit 6 pounds is a LOT of pot. I don’t think most folks can understand just what that looks like, since it’s a plant, and the weight of a large amount is negligible. I remember a guy in college who, along with a buddy, bought a pound for the school year and it took them MANY months to smoke the stuff.
Now having said that, I don’t know how often patients need to take it, but if the DAs are correct and six pounds equals one joint every hour for the whole year, I think that is indeed excessive.
Here’s a message from a patient and user under the current system in favor of the new measure.
The ACLU is supporting the measure. We should not be surprised at this, as the ACLU is noted for its support of decriminalization of Cannabis.
The Oregon Medical Association urges a NO vote.
The Pacific Green Party endorses it. Also no surprise.
And, although I can’t find references on the Oregon Republican Party site, I’m sure they are against it.
The Democratic Party of Oregon website indicates that the process of ballot measure endorsements is still in process. Their web site, by the way, is far better than the Republican site. Not as pretty, but very functional and full of information.
Another story, here in Willamette Week, where the original poster girl for the first measure, Stormy Ray, is against this current measure, but not for the reasons you would think. She is against the selling of cannabis and is happy with the “cooperative, cash free system that empowers the sick.”
The McMinnville News-Register is against it.
Monday, September 27, 2004
True to stripes, I'm back with the second measure on November's ballot. This one seems even more innocuous than Measure 31. Once again there is not much on this one. Most sites just list the ballot title, and there are no campaigns for measures referred from the Senate.
The Oregonian printed it's recommendations on the 14th of September for both Measures 31 and 32. Their explination for 31 still does not satisfy me and so I'm still wondering how I'm going to vote (knowing that it probably won't matter too much), but thier explination of 32 is like what I've heard and it does in fact look like a housekeeping thing.
Basically, until now mobile homes have been treated like cars in the tax code and the taxes and fees regarding them have been earmarked for transportation. This measure will change the code so that the taxes from mobilehomes will go to expenses related to building codes. The overall taxes on people living in mobile homes will not change.
Sounds fine to me. Once again the question flittering in my mind is, "Why are we being bothered with this? Why does it need to be an amendment?"
This article from the McMinnville Register Guard answers that, sort of. "Two measures on the Nov. 2 ballot are there because legislators, by themselves, cannot alter Oregon's Constitution."
Apparently the mobile homes are singled out specifically in the Constitution.
Friday, September 24, 2004
Here is the title again: AMENDS CONSTITUTION: AUTHORIZES LAW PERMITTING POSTPONEMENT OF ELECTION FOR PARTICULAR PUBLIC OFFICE WHEN NOMINEE FOR OFFICE DIES.
Here's the text and explanation.
Ok this sounds really tame, like it's just a procedure change. The text of the bill says that there will be no financial hit on government if passed. But here's my question: why do we need to go through this at all? I don't get why it's necessary, or even why elections can't be postponed now. From what I've read in the text of the measure, if candidates vote for the dead guy, then the current office holder stays in office until a subsequent election anyway.
Most sites just quote the official explanation of the measure, saying something like "current law does not provide for postponement of elections due to the death of one of the candidates," but what does that mean really?
The Green Party seems to oppose it, although they don't say why.
Jackson County's Mail Tribune has an opinion (which starts talking about measure 38) but later endorses measures 31 and 32 as reasonable housekeeping measures.
RoguePundit has a post several days ago on this and spends considerable text on it. He thinks it is a good idea, but poorly written and narrow. The bill was written when local legislators read about Mel Carnahan, then Governor of Missouri, who died during his run for Senator. Legislators wondered what would happen in Oregon if a candidate died and crafted this bill. The bill just applies to state offices (Governor, Attrny gen, Sec of State, Senator, Rep) and only applies to major party candidates. Which is probably why the Green party opposes it.
Thursday, September 23, 2004
I'm stopping for a while to pay attention to some of the local issues here in Oregon. We have a mayoral race here in Portland and several ballot measures to pay attention to. I figure that the Dan Rather - Forged document issue, the election and debates, and terrorism are getting good treatment from other bloggers, so I'll ask all those of you who want info on that to check out Instapundit or Winds of Change for thier almost constant blogging of issues that I usually make note of.
Ballot measures can either be real easy or real hard. Some are moral or constitutional issues that are obvious to the voter (although not all voters feel the same, like measure 36 this year).
Here are the measures up for grabs in November:
Measure 31. Constitutional amendment. Permits postponing of election when nominee for that office dies.
Measure 32. Constitutional amendment. Deletes a provision regarding mobile homes dealing with taxes and fees on motor vehicles.
Measure 33. Amendment to Medical Marijuana act. Raises possession limit. Requires regulated dispensaries for distribution.
Measure 34. Requires balancing Timber production. Specific to two forests.
Measure 35. Limits non-economic damages for patient injuries caused by medical negligence or recklessness.
Measure 36. Constitutional Amendment. Defines marriage as one woman/one man.
Measure 37. Government must pay landowners when restrictions reduce land value.
Measure 38. Abolishes SAIF and requires the state to re-insure with some other mechanism or private insurer.
I'll start tackling these as soon as I can, because I want to be as informed as I can regarding these.
Saw this one this morning. In the mix of court decisions that I find suspect, including the ones shooting down the abortion ban and the local one denying Ralph Nader a spot on the ballot, this one really came at me with a sledgehammer.
Here's the money statement from the court:
"It is without question an invasion of the authority of the judicial branch for the Legislature to pass a law that allows the executive branch to interfere with the final judicial determination in a case," Chief Justice Barbara Pariente wrote.OK, isn't it a mark of the separation of powers that if a majority of the legislature AND the executive branch thinks the Judicial end of things is out of line that they have the power to do something about it? I'm not familiar with the Florida Constitution and how the three branches of opperate to control each other, but this smells fishy. I am cynical about the authority of the judicial branch not just because of this, but the cases keep piling up where courts don't just apply law but try to create it or modify it for their purpose. What controls do the other branches really have against this?
Tuesday, September 21, 2004
John Kerry made a speach detailing how his foreign policy will work.
Aurthur Chrenkoff is not impressed. Some of his stances are not based on any fact in the real world. The ones that are, Bush is already pursuing.
So why are we supposed to vote for you, Sen Kerry?
Monday, September 20, 2004
I have to say that this is probably the best argument that could be made for Kerry as a war hawk. If anyone could do it, it's Mike Totten.
First of all, the anti-war movement is more anti-Bush than it is anti-war. Don't believe it? Ask yourself how many protesters would have filled the streets if Hillary Clinton led the charge against Saddam Hussein.Michael argues that the Democrats really wouldn't shut down the war, that it's consistant with their liberal philosophy, freeing nations and promoding democracy. But it's all a Hate Bush thing right now and they will eventually embrace it and be able to reunite the nation for the cause.
Also...
The urgent need to shunt the UN aside was obvious when Bill Clinton was president. It will be obvious once again when the UN tries to hamstring John Kerry.He endsd by saying that convincing Kerry that proactive measure must be taken once he is in the hot seat and once he has access to the same intelligence that Bush has that he will be more hawkish and he could be convinced that pre-emption is necessary.
Sounds pretty thin though.
Tuesday, September 14, 2004
I can't believe this is up again. The defence lawyers are really stretching this time. They are STILL trying to get the GPS tracking data out of the case, even when the judge in the case OK'd the data as evidence last winter.
I've noticed that some news media folk don't seem to remember the February ruling, but I'm not really surprised that the attention span is that short.
Daniel Drezner has an interesting post on a study done by the Washington Alliance of Technology Workers (affiliated with AFL-CIO) stating that unemployment figures for tech workers, including programmers, are huge (6.7%) whereas during the recession it wasn't as bad (2.5% in 2001).
The only paragraph supporting their claim that offshore outsourcing is a major cause of this dirth of jobs is void of any real connection between the two.
Drezner is skeptical. So am I.
I'm not surprised that it took until after 2001 for all the programmers that were in employment because of the big tech boom of the 90s to finally get canned. A typical employer is not so crass as to fire an employee the minute the economy takes a down turn. They try to ride the storm to a certain extent. But after 9/11 I'm sure the jobs started to take a mighty turn downward.
Also, I have an anecdodal experience with the GIS Programming industry. In addition to our own efforts to hire someone a couple of years ago and finding no one in the US (at least those who applied) we really liked (we hired Canadian that time), I know a company here in town that has been looking for a couple of GIS Programmers. They haven't seen any worthy applications yet. Are there really any qualified applicants here in the US, or is that why they are going out of country?
Monday, September 13, 2004
Instapundit has been blogging up such a storm over this CBS Dan Rather-gate issue that I haven't felt the need. Therefore I won't. Check his posts for the last week.
But one of his posts offers a great reason to trust Blogs. I have been often asked why, when people can put anything they want on the internet, can you trust information jotted down on any random website.
Well... As Glenn writes, you can definitely mitigate that with links to support your claims, and with the internet you can Google and research the topic without too much trouble. Indeed I'm beginning to learn to trust these guys as much or more-so than the traditional media (who have proven that they can be just as un-trustable as any web site out there).
Wednesday, September 08, 2004
Also: Via that same link, here is the latest top 10 dictators in the world, as listed by Parade magazine. Surely one of Dr. Evil's favorite lists.
William Kristol:
JOHN KERRY said yesterday that Iraq was "the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time." Translation: We would be better off if Saddam Hussein were still in power.
Not an unheard of point of view. Indeed, as President Bush pointed out today, it was Howard Dean's position during the primary season. On December 15, 2003, in a speech at the Pacific Council on International Policy in Los Angeles, Dean said that "the capture of Saddam Hussein has not made America safer." Dean also said, "The difficulties and tragedies we have faced in Iraq show the administration launched the war in the wrong way, at the wrong time, with inadequate planning, insufficient help, and at the extraordinary cost, so far, of $166 billion."
But who challenged Dean immediately? John Kerry. On December 16, at Drake University in Iowa, Kerry asserted that "those who doubted whether Iraq or the world would be better off without Saddam Hussein, and those who believe today that we are not safer with his capture, don't have the judgment to be president or the credibility to be elected president."
Kerry was right then.
Tuesday, September 07, 2004
The L.A. Times reported that some prominent Arabs have come forward recently and declared that:
"Our terrorist sons are an end product of our corrupted culture," he wrote. "The picture is humiliating, painful and harsh for all of us."That was Abdul Rahman Rashed of a prominent Arabic television station. This was following the Russian school children thing. Is the tide turning?
Friday, September 03, 2004
Here I was recently talking about mapping kid's neighborhoods as an example of how small in scope geography can get. The smallest mapping project ever has been the mapping of the human genome. Now we see an example going in the other direction, as the large radio telescope in Puerto Rico, known as Arecibo, is on project to map the known galaxy.
The radio telescope, the world's most sensitive listening device that is powerful enough to hear planets forming several billion lights years away, received six more radio receivers to expand its range.The project will take at least 2 years because other projects are going on at the same time that utilize the telescope. I'm glad that this mapping won't bully those other important useful, scientific projects. Oh, wait:
However, the process is likely to take at least two years to allow other astronomers to work on other projects like searching for extraterrestrial life, he said.Sheesh.
Thursday, September 02, 2004
Research in inner-city Buffalo is interacting with children by studying how they experience their neighborhoods through geography. I have long though we should be teaching them to understand geography on the local level first.
They seem to get the States and Nations thing OK, but it doesn't really fall in their mental context well. However, kids perceive their local environment much better. I have often tried to explain the relationships to my son about where New Mexico is in relation or Oregon and, because of air travel, doesn't grasp that as much as he does a trip to the store. He is 8 and just getting used to the larger picture. This study done in Buffalo watched how kids in the inner city saw the area they lived in differently by the maps they made and the pictures they took:
At the same time, the UB researchers who supervise the project are discovering how children in inner cities view their physical surroundings, what makes them feel good or bad about urban places and how the children themselves impact their communities. They also are exploring how those perceptions could contribute to a more meaningful geography curriculum at the elementary school level.Also...
The diverse projects are helping Cope and her students learn more about the microgeographies—the small-scale social/spatial interactions of everyday life—of children's urban experiences, uses of different spaces and perceptions of neighborhoods.My feeling is that we should concentrate on the local more when the kids are young and then proceed to the regional and national in more detail later. Geography is much more than maps and knowing where the states and countries are. But knowing how to read maps and understand spatial relationships is much more important. Knowing the capital of New Hampshire when you are 10 isn't as important as knowing the location of the capital of your own state (unless you live in New Hampshire), what neighborhood you live in and the geography of the areas that affect your life, along with some spatial theory on why the geography matters. Memorizing capitals is just a lesson in memorization, not in geography.
(Note: I don't say that because I didn't like memorizing capital names. I was really good at it. But I don't think it is that important. It's more important to learn how to read a map and know how to find the capitals on it)
Not his war record, his voting record. Hey, I like what the Republicans are doing here at the convention. They aren't going after Kerry's war record. Partially because it is already getting scrutiny outside the party, but also because it really shouldn't matter. What should matter is what Kerry has been doing for the last 20 years in the Senate and what he has said for the last couple of years regarding current issues. So instead of slamming Kerry for his war record, which is what the Dems want him to do, they are critisizing his (gasp!) actual political credentials as a senator.
You mean they are actually talking issues? Yes, that's right. Issues, not name calling.
To be fair, they Dems did a fair amout talking about issues, but spent most of the time saying that they would be better than Bush, without really saying how. And they really pushed the fact that Kerry was in the war and won lots of medals, and his main qualification, without really discussing his record over the past two decades much.
Wednesday, September 01, 2004
We aren't the only ones having problems with terrorists. In this case it's the Russians trying to deal with a group who took a school full of kids and is holding them hostage. With all the problems with suicide bombers scuttling planes and blowing up subway stations.
Interestingly, those earlier bombings were perpetrated by women, who the authorities are now calling "Black Widows."
I have been pretty neutral about this conflict that Russia has found itself in up until now. The current Russian administration has it's flaws and Soviet style authoritarian tendencies, but threatening to kill school children is over the line and suddently I'm rooting for the Russians.
Tuesday, August 31, 2004
Things are looking up for Oregon.
Oregon should benefit from continued solid job growth through at least 2006, state economists told legislators Tuesday.Budget crises? What budget crises?Employment increased by 2.2 percent in the second quarter this year compared to the same period of 2003, chief economist Tom Potiowsky said in his quarterly economic and state revenue forecast. He said that was the strongest rise in four years.
Economists predict the budget period will end next June 30 with $137 million left over. That's up by $80 million from estimates made when the 2003 Legislature wrapped up the budget a year ago.
OK, when I first heard about this I was quite incensed. This seems like a rediculous waste of policemen's time and effort. I understand that the "when children present" thing is a little subjective and confusing, but there are certain times when you know there are not going to be children. Like say midnight. I have to slow down to 20 at midnight?
As it turns out the article in the Oregonian said that only roads where the speed limit is 25 or 30 miles an hour will this rule apply. Otherwise the rule will only be imposed during certain times.
I have to admit, also, that the first place I heard this was talk radio. Not exactly with it on all the facts now were we.
My first impression about the rediculousness of the 24 hour thing still stands though.
I can't find the article now, but there was a great quote from Vaclav Havel of the Czech republic who saw the film and then declared that he didn't buy it. After all, he lived under the shadow of the Soviets. He knows propaganda when he sees it.